Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies
Integrating transition economies into the global commercial and trade market system is a prolonged and risky process. This book is a collection of studies dealing with the different issues related to the liberalization of external relations in economies m
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Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies
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Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies
edited by Mario I "v Blejer Marko Skreb
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Kluwer Academic Publishers Boston/Dordrecht/London
Distributors for North, Central and South America: Kluwer Academic Publishers 101 Philip Drive Assinippi Park Norwell, Massachusetts 02061 USA Telephone (781) 871-6600 Fax (781) 871-6528 E-Mail
Distributors for all other countries: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group Distribution Centre Post Office Box 322 3300 AH Dordrecht, THE NETHERLANDS Telephone 31 78 6392 392 Fax 31 78 6546 474 E-Mail
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libra Electronic Services
"lw~" Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Balance of payments, exchange rates, and competitiveness in transition economies / Mario I. Blejer and Marko Skreb (Eds.). p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. ISBN 0-7923-8422-9 1. Monetary policy--Europe, Eastern. 2. Economic stabilization-Europe, Eastern. 3. Balance of paymentswEurope, Eastern. 4. Foreign exchange rates--Government policymEurope, Eastern. 5. Competition, International. I. Blejer, Mario I. II. Skreb, Marko, 1957HG930.7 .B35 1999 332.4'94~dc21 99-26147 CIP
Copyright © 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Assinippi Park, Norwell, Massachusetts 02061. Printed on acid-free paper.
Printed in the United States of America
Contents
1
Transition and the Open Economy: An Overview Mario I. Blejer and Marko Skreb I
Exchange-Rate Policies and the Balance of Payments
17
2 Current-Account Sustainability in Transition Economies Nouriel Roubini and Paul Wachtel
19
3 Exchange-Rate Arrangements in the Transition Economies Robert A. Mundell
95
4
Toward Virtual Exchange-Rate Stability in Western and Eastern Europe with the Advent of EMU Ronald I. McKinnon
131
5 A Model of Real Exchange-Rate Determination in Transition Economies Clemens Grafe and Charles Wyplosz
159
6
Financing the Transition to a Market Economy: External Borrowing in the Baltics and CIS Region John Odling-Smee and Basil Zavoico
185
7 Capital Flows and Stability of Financial Systems in Emerging Countries Andr& Icard
201
vi
CONTENTS
II Transition and International Trade
213
8
Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies Oleh Havrylyshyn and Hassan AI-Atrash
215
9
The Fiscal Implications of Trade Liberalization in Transition Countries Vito TanzL Adrienne Cheasty, and Kristina Kostial 10 What Is Special About Endogenous International Trade Policy in Transition Economies? Arye L. Hillman and Heinrich Ursprung III Selected Country Experiences 11 External Deficit, Exchange Rate, and Competitiveness in Croatia: Is There a Pro
