Bayesian Statistics in Actuarial Science with Emphasis on Credibilit

The debate between the proponents of "classical" and "Bayesian" statistica} methods continues unabated. It is not the purpose of the text to resolve those issues but rather to demonstrate that within the realm of actuarial science there are a number of pr

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Huebner International Series on Risk, lnsurance, and Economic Security J. David Cummins, Editor The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA Series Advisors: Dr. Phelim P. Boyle University of Waterloo, Canada Dr. Jean Lemaire University of Pennsylvania, USA Professor Akihiko Tsuboi Kagawa University, Japan Dr. Richard Zeckhauser Harvard University, USA Other books in the series: Cummins, J. David; Smith, Barry D.; Vance, R. Neil; VanDerhei, Jack L.: Risk Classification in Life lnsurance Mintal, Judith: lnsurance Rate Litigation Cummins, J. David: Strategic Planning and Mode/ing in Property-Liability lnsurance Lemaire, Jean: Automobile lnsurance: Actuarial Models Rushing, William.: Social Functions and Economic Aspects of Health lnsurance Cummins, J. David and Harrington, Scott E.: Fair Rate of Return in Property-Liability lnsurance Appel, David and Borba, Philip 5.: Workers Compensation lnsurance Pricing Cummins, J. David and Derrig, Richard A.: Classical lnsurance Solvency Theory Barba, Philip S. and Appel, David: Benefits, Costs, and Cycles in Workers Compensation Cummins, J. David and Derrig, Richard A.: Financial Models of lnsurance Solvency Williams, C. Arthur: An International Comparison of Workers' Compensation Cummins, J. David and Derrig, Richard A.: Managing the lnsolvency Risk of lnsurance Companies Dionne, Georges: Contributions to lnsurance Economics Dionne, Georges: Foundations of lnsurance Economics-Readings in Economics and Finance The objecllve of the serles ls to publlsh original research and advanced textbooks deallng wlth ali major aspects of rlsk bearlng and economic securlty. The emphasls ls on books that wlll be of Interes! to an International audlence. lnterdlsclpllnary toplcs as well as those !rom traditional dlsclpllnes such as economlcs, rlsk and lnsurance, and actuarlal sclence are wlthln the scope of the serles. The goal ls to provlde an outlet for Imaginativa approaches to probleme In both the theory and practice of rlsk and economic securlty.

Bayesian Statistics in Actuarial Science with Emphasis on Credibility

Stuart A. Klugman Drake University

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Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Klugman, Stuart A., 1949Bayesian statistics in actuarial science : with emphasis on credibility 1 Stuart A. Klugman. p. cm. - (Huebner international series on risk, insurance, and economic security) Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-94-017-0845-6 (eBook) ISBN 978-90-481-5790-7 DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-0845-6 1. Insurance-Statistical methods. 2. Bayesian statistica! decision theory. 1. Title. II. Series. HG878l.K58 1991 91-25856 368 '.01-dc20 CIP

Copyright © 1992 by Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Second Printing 1999.

Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1992 AII rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the