Big Solar Spiral of Stirring Up Global Systemic Conflicts
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BIG SOLAR SPIRAL OF STIRRING UP GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CONFLICTS M. Z. Zgurovskya† and V. V. Yasinsky a‡
UDC 504.052
Abstract. The authors are based on the Fibonacci pattern of global systemic conflicts (Ñ-waves) and formulate the hypotheses about a metric relation between two global periodic processes, namely, between the sequence of 11-year cycles of solar activity and the process of evolutionary structurization of the family of Ñ-waves of global systemic conflicts covering large and super-large time intervals and having a variable structural configuration. Keywords: global systemic conflicts, Ñ-waves, F-pattern, solar activity, social rhythms, Schwabe–Wolf cycles, solar spiral, K-cycles, metric approaches. INTRODUCTION The paper [1] analyzed the hypothetical Fibonacci pattern of global systemic conflicts, based on the dynamic model of so-called Ñ-waves with the golden ratio metrics underneath. The studies [2, 3] consider the evolutionary development of the civilization as an integral process formed as a result of harmonic interference of its various components and justify the correspondence of this pattern to a number of additional conditions, namely: — existence of an interrelation of global systemic conflicts and Kondratiev cycles of economic conjuncture [3]; — the law of structural harmony [4, 5]; — modern concept on the acceleration of historical time [6]; — global forecasts for the 21st century as a special critical phase of the development of civilization [7]. Based on the analysis of the empirical sequence of the frequencies of global conflicts, structural analysis of Ñ-waves was carried out and metric approaches to the analysis and forecasting of some global civilizational processes were considered. Note that throughout centuries, according to the synchronous development of the civilization, the nature of global conflicts also varied. It became especially noticeable at the end of the 20th and in the first decades of the 21st centuries, when the mankind passed to the “information society” where the terms such as information wars, cyber wars, hybrid wars, psychotropic weapon, etc. have already become customary. However, the publications mentioned above were grounded on the investigation of only “inner” factors of civilizational processes, where a human being with his mentality, complicated inner world, culture, and values remains the subject of all conflicts. The manifestation of any global conflict was related, first of all, to release of an enormous “mental” and “social” energy accumulated by people. But it is lawful to raise the question: Whether there are external (for a person) factors influencing the behavior of civilizational processes and, in particular, patterns of global systemic conflicts? To discuss this topic, let us turn to some authorities. As far back as in the last century, A. L. Chizhevskii, an outstanding biophysicist, one of the founders of space natural science, used a huge amount of factual material and justified that the life of the biosphere and social rhythms depend on the rhythms of th
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