General Concept of the Periodic Development of Global Systemic Conflicts
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GENERAL CONCEPT OF THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CONFLICTS
M. Z. Zgurovsky
UDC 504.052
Abstract. The generalization and formalization of approaches to the recognition of Ñ -waves of global systemic conflicts using big historical data are performed and general concept of description and interpretation of these waves is proposed. Special attention is paid to the class of big C -waves, which cover super-long time intervals. Their pattern is invariant to the evolution of the nature of global conflicts. Keywords: global systemic conflicts, structural analysis, golden section, metric approaches, C -waves of global systemic conflicts. INTRODUCTION Investigating the global evolutionary development of the civilization as a complicated, integral, self-organizing system assumes taking into account some interrelated processes and factors of various nature, among which global conflicts occupy one of central places. Finding and constructing general models that would adequately describe the regularities of world conflicts remains one of the most important yet unsolved problems the science is facing. Despite numerous attempts, no adequate scientifically justified metric toolkit has been proposed yet for global forecast and prediction of the development of world conflicts, which is especially necessary when the global civilization enters the 21st century as a special critical phase of its development [1–3]. In the context of finding a solution to this problem, being based on systemic generalization of the results of analysis of an extensive empirical material [4–6], the studies [7–9] revealed and justified a hypothetical pattern of systemic world conflicts, based on the so-called dynamic model of C -waves, which is based on the “golden section” metric. In the present paper, we will propose a general concept of C -waves of systemic world conflicts, on the basis of generalization and formalization of the approaches considered in [7–9]. We will analyze the class of C -waves, which envelopes super-long time intervals. We will show that the pattern of big C -waves is invariant with respect to the evolution of the nature of world conflicts. 1. SOME CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS Let Wc ( m, n) be the set of all world conflicts that took place from year mth to n th, where m, n Î Z , Z is the set of integer numbers. In what follows, we will consider that years of the Common era (AD) correspond to positive numbers m and n , and years before Christ (BC) correspond to negative ones. National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute,” Kyiv, Ukraine, [email protected] and [email protected]. Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 6, November–December, 2017, pp. 84–95. Original article submitted February 17, 2017. 1060-0396/17/5306-0893 ©2017 Springer Science+Business Media New York
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Let us associate any s that belongs to time interval J ( m, n) ( s Î J ( m, n) = [ m, n] I Z ) with the following group of world conflicts:
L (ws) = {wc ÎWc ( m, n) | P ( wc , s) = 1} ,
(1)
c
ì1 if the
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