Broader Issues in the West Pacific

This chapter provides a perspective on the earlier discussion on economic interests by reviewing a broader set of concerns that motivate national behavior in the South China Sea. These range from national security to the need to reduce the spread of infec

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The Third Option for the South China Sea

David Jay Green

The Third Option for the South China Sea The Political Economy of Regional Conflict and Cooperation

David Jay Green Hult International Business School San Francisco, California United States

ISBN 978-3-319-40273-4 ISBN 978-3-319-40274-1 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40274-1

(eBook)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016947459 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and the Author(s) 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland

For my children, Naomi and Lucian Wizer-Green, who grew to young adulthood on the shores of the South China Sea

FOREWORD

David Green and I were colleagues at the Asian Development Bank in Manila for 20 years (full disclosure). He has always been bitten by the curiosity bug, and has had an admirable instinct for seeking intelligent responses to vexed questions—traits not typically associated with formulaic multilateral development finance institutions. This inquiry into the prospects for regional cooperation in Southeast Asia is unsurprising— David knows the issues well, and he has framed them in the context of the complex political and security overtones that have developed in recent times. It is not easy to add value to a subject as fraught as the goings-on in the South China Sea. Events leapfrog each other with surprising rapidity, fig leafs are off, militarization proceeds apace, and the room for political maneuver narrows. It is hard to predict what happens next, but it is likely that the asymmetry of interests, political strength, and negotiating abilities will assure mutual self-preservation. Temperatures in the cauldron will rise, but open conflict will probably be avoided. David’s thesis acquires appeal in this background, and merits a closer look. The benefits of regional economic cooperation,