Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1 An Integrative
Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets provides an introduction to the important topic of asset bubbles and contagion, two key precursors to financial crashes. Interest in market microstructure, market interrelations and contagion has risen sharply fo
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Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1 An Integrative View Eva R. Porras Independent scholar, Spain
© Eva R. Porras 2016 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2016 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-137-35875-2 DOI 10.1057/9781137358769
ISBN 978-1-137-35876-9 (eBook)
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
To Luis Javier
Contents List of Tables and Figures Preface
viii xi
Acknowledgments
xvi
List of Acronyms
xvii
1
Introduction to Bubbles and Contagion
1
2
Macro “Players” in Bubble Formation and Contagion Processes
31
3
Contributors to the Bubble Formation and Contagion Process
55
4
Bubbles versus the Valuation of Fundamentals
91
5
Bubbles and Technical Trading
127
6
Contagion
173
7
Bubbles
201
Notes
237
Author Index
277
Subject Index
281
List of Tables and Figures Tables 1.1
Viceroy bulb trade (1637)
2.1
Guarantor of debt when there is risk of default
41
3.1
Dual-system theory, two modes of thought
69
3.2
Question substitution by intuition
70
3.3
Ten behavioral biases and effects in financial services
80
4.1
Probability distribution for expected degree of service completion (x)
92
Probability distribution for expected degree of service completion
94
4.3
Blue Jacket, Inc. income statement ($ millions)
106
4.4
Blue Jacket, Inc. balance sheet ($ millions)
106
4.5
Blue Jacket, Inc. changes for five-year forecast ($ millions)
108
4.6
Blue Jacket, Inc. five-year forecast ($ mi
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