Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets

This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes.  In the experiment, subjec

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Stefan Palan

Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets

Stefan Palan Karl‐Franzens‐University Graz Institute for Banking & Finance Universita¨tsstraße 15/F2 8010 Graz Austria stefan.palan@uni‐graz.at

The publication of this book was financially supported by the Karl‐Franzens‐University Graz and the government of the province of Styria, Austria.

ISSN 0075-8442 ISBN 978-3-642-02146-6 e-ISBN 978-3-642-02147-3 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-02147-3 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009928305 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: SPi Publishing Services Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Acknowledgement

I owe the greatest debt of gratitude to my fiance´e Nicole Ho¨henberger, for her endurance, her uplifting words, her time spent proof-reading papers and this text, and for being herself. For his advice and support in all steps necessary on the path to become the researcher I want to be, I thank my supervisor Peter Steiner. My colleague Roland Mestel receives my warmest thanks, for daily advice, unmeasurable conceptual help and an open ear at all times. Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger deserves my heartfelt gratitude not only for offering to dedicate her time to being the second supervisor of this work, but also for setting me a deadline for the first experiment, thus probably accelerating this project by months. Alexander Brauneis had a big part in the success of this project, both by organizing two experimental sessions at the University of Klagenfurt and by showing me around town (and the best restaurants) while I was there. Antje Lutz’ proof-reading has had a great impact in improving this text’s quality and readability. A special thanks goes to Catherine Eckel and Simon Ga¨chter, for inspiring and encouraging me to take up experimental research during conversations at their seminar at the European Forum Alpbach 2005 and Simon’s presentations at the Graz Schumpeter Lectures 2006. For the original idea of employing digital options in a Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988)-type experiment, I thank Hubertus Hofkirchner. My thanks furthermore go to Lucy Ackert, Jame