Challenging official estimates of carbon dioxide emissions and fuel economy for passenger cars in the United Kingdom
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Challenging official estimates of carbon dioxide emissions and fuel economy for passenger cars in the United Kingdom Giles Hindlea,*, Adam Hindleb and Anthony Hindlec a
Hull University Business School, University of Hull, Hull, HU6 7RX, UK. Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK. c HCS Ltd, Preston, UK. b
*Corresponding author.
Abstract In the United Kingdom, passenger cars are the largest contributor to green house gas (Carbon dioxide (CO2)) emissions from road transport. Estimates of CO2 emissions (and associated fuel consumption) are mainly based on data obtained from the rolling road testing of new car models as managed by the Vehicle Certification Agency. The main outputs of this testing for each car model are the expected CO2 emissions in g/km and the expected overall miles per gallon achievable. There are three main areas of concern addressed in this article – that the car emission testing procedures do not accurately reflect outputs achievable under normal on-the-road driving conditions, that the test outputs are used directly by government in building green house gas inventories and that the reported test outputs for individual car models are misleading in relation to car purchasing decisions. The article in particular challenges the current UK fleet estimates reported by the Department for Energy and Climate Change that, it is argued, are likely to be significant underestimates. The main aims have been to model the required adjustments of emission factors derived from rolling road tests in order to account for on-the-road effects. Results are compared and contrasted with official governmental estimates. OR Insight (2013) 26, 278–290. doi:10.1057/ori.2013.9; published online 9 October 2013 Keywords: environment; transport; carbon emissions; passenger cars Received 28 April 2012; accepted 16 August 2013 © 2013 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight www.palgrave-journals.com/ori/
Vol. 26, 4, 278–290
Challenging official estimates of carbon dioxide emissions
Introduction CO2 emissions in the United Kingdom are mainly based on data obtained from the rolling road testing of new car models as managed by the Vehicle Certification Agency (VCA). The main output of this testing for each car model is the expected CO2 emissions in g/km. This is mainly direct CO2 , but other outputs (methane and nitrous oxide) also contribute to a minor degree. Also derived directly from the emission test outputs are estimates of the fuel economy achievable under urban and extra urban conditions plus a derived ‘combined’ estimate (normally expressed in miles per gallon or km/litre). A glossary is provided at the end of the article for ease of reference (Appendix). In the United Kingdom, this testing procedure started in 1997 and has been comprehensive across all new models since 2001 when unit CO2 emission factors became the basis for determining road taxation bands and company car benefit tax rates. In the United Kingdom, two government departments (Departments, Energy and Climate Chan
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