Changes in colorectal cancer incidence by site and age from 1973 to 2015: a SEER database analysis
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Changes in colorectal cancer incidence by site and age from 1973 to 2015: a SEER database analysis Lin Yang1 · Shousheng Liu2 · Zhenchong Xiong2 · Huijiao Cao2 · Wenzhuo He2 · Qiankun Xie1 · Chang Jiang2 · Bei Zhang2 · Liangping Xia2 Received: 29 May 2020 / Accepted: 19 September 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Previous studies have reported incidence and mortality declines for colorectal cancer (CRC). We evaluated recent temporal trends of colorectal cancer in the United States for the last 4 decades. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we identified primary CRCs diagnosed between 1973 and 2015. Temporal changes were evaluated by 6-year time periods. Age-adjusted incidence rates and annual percentage change (APC) for CRC were calculated by site and gender. Age-standardized relative survival rates were also evaluated. We identified 878,632 CRC patients, 51% of whom were men. For both genders, the proportions of new diagnoses of right-sided colon cancer (RCC) remained relatively stable, with the APC of − 0.8 and − 0.6 for the male and the female, respectively. There was a relative increase in RCC for the younger aged group ( 65 (in both genders). Our study showed near significance in the decline of CRC mortality rates in this population, except the 1-year age-standardized survival of LCC and RSC, and the 5-year age-standardized RCC in females. There was a significant increase in RCC for the younger aged group ( 4 months after initial diagnosis). Using the direct adjustment method [15], annual percentage change (APC) and age-adjusted incidence rates by site, race, and gender for the 6-year time periods were computed using population estimates derived from the SEER Program. These were then adjusted to the 1970 US population. The proportions of new diagnoses were calculated by site, and age group ( 65) at diagnosis for 6-year time periods. Calculations were performed using SEER*Stat version 2.0 software, which is the statistical package created for the analysis of the SEER database, and SAS version 8.2 (SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC). P 65 RSC 0–49 50–64 > 65
− 0.4 (− 0.6 to − 0.2) − 0.7 (− 1 to − 0.4) − 2.1 (− 2.3 to − 1.8) − 0.2 (− 0.5 to − 0.2) − 2 (− 2.1 to − 1.8) − 2.4 (− 2.8 to − 2) − 1.3 (− 1.4 to − 1.2) 1.5 (1.2–1.8) − 0.6 (− 0.8 to − 0.5) − 2.1 (− 2.4 to − 1.9)
1973–1986 − 3.5 (− 5.4 to − 1.5) 1973–1993 0.5 (0.1–0.9) 1973–1980 2.1 (0.6–3.7) 1973–1985 1 (0.5–1.6) 1973–1993 − 2.3 (− 3.1 to − 1.5) 1973–1981 0.6 (− 1.1 to − 2.3) 1973–1985 1.8 (1.3–2.4) 1973–1984 − 0.1 (− 0.5 to − 0.8) 1973–1991 − 0.4 (− 1.4 to − 0.5) 1973–1995 − 1 (− 1.5 to − 0.6) 1973–1984 0.2 (− 0.5 to − 0.9)
1993–2015 − 1.1 (− 1.4 to − 0.8) 1980–2003 − 0.1 (− 0.3 to − 0.1) 1985–1993 − 3.4 (− 4.5 to − 2.4) 1993–2015 1.5 (0.9–2.1) 1981–2015 − 2.3 (− 2.4 to − 2.1) 1985–1994 − 3.3 (− 4.2 to − 2.4) 1984–1995 − 2.2 (− 2.9 to − 1.5) 1991–2015 2.5 (2–2.9) 1995–2015 − 0.2 (− 0.6 to − 0.2) 1984–1995 − 2.5 (− 3.2 to − 1.8)
Trend 4
2003–2015 − 3.4 (− 4 to − 2.9) 1993–2002 − 1.4
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