Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas
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Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas Carlynn Fagnant1 · Avantika Gori2,3 · Antonia Sebastian2,4,5 · Philip B. Bedient2 · Katherine B. Ensor1 Received: 16 April 2020 / Accepted: 18 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Rainfall extreme value analysis provides information that has been crucial in characterizing risk, designing successful infrastructure systems, and ultimately protecting people and property from the threat of rainfall-induced flooding. However, in the Houston region recent events (such as the unprecedented rainfall wrought by Hurricane Harvey) have highlighted the inability of existing analyses to accurately characterize current climate conditions. Specifically, there has been little research investigating how spatial patterns of extreme precipitation have shifted through time in the Texas Gulf Coast region, which has led to mis-characterization of existing intensity–duration–frequency curves. This study investigates spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in southeast Texas using a statistical approach for peaks-over-threshold modeling that employs a generalized Pareto distribution. Precipitation data from over 600 rain gauges across the region are analyzed in 40-year time windows to evaluate shifts in distribution parameters and extreme rainfall levels through time. Spatial analysis of these trends focuses on highlighting regions with increasing, stationary, and decreasing extreme rainfall through time. Results demonstrate heterogeneity in spatiotemporal trends across the entire study region, but significant increases in extreme rainfall over the Houston urban area. Spatial analysis of these trends focuses on how extreme rainfall has changed within different watersheds. Return level estimates of extreme rainfall values are also compared to the current standards for Harris County. Results from this study identify areas that have experienced significant shifts in extreme rainfall, and can help inform where design standards may be inaccurate or outdated.
* Carlynn Fagnant [email protected] 1
Department of Statistics, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
4
Department of Marine Sciences, Center for Texas Beaches and Shores, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, USA
5
Department of Geological Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
Keywords Rainfall · Extreme · Precipitation · Generalized Pareto · Flooding · Return level
1 Introduction Extreme weather-related events can cause significant economic, social, and environmental disruption. In the U.S., it is estimated that flood-related events have generated losses exceeding $124.7 billion and caused 546 deaths since 1980 (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) 2019). Flood risk has increased substa
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