Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1
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Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010 Gerardo Núñez‑González1 Received: 25 April 2020 / Accepted: 21 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Analysis of precipitation trends as well as the observed trends in precipitation concentration can be useful tools for the identification of natural hazards. This study aimed to analyze the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration at the seasonal and annual levels in Mexico from 1960 to 2010. To do this, an entropy-based concentration index was used to calculate the concentration of precipitation at 44 climatological stations distributed throughout the country. The trend analysis was developed based on the Mann–Kendall test. There were fifteen significant precipitation trends at the annual level, and the numbers of positive and negative trends were nearly even. The interannual average of the concentration index ranged from 0.084 to 0.265, although extreme values of up to 0.56 were observed at the annual level and of up to 1 at the seasonal level. There were more positive trends than negative trends in the concentration index. The comparison of the trends of the precipitation and the concentration index showed an increase in precipitation at some stations with an associated decrease in the concentration index. On the other hand, decreases in precipitation at other stations were accompanied by increases in the concentration index. The first case did not seem to represent risk because the conditions suggested a more regular precipitation pattern. However, the second case could be considered a cautionary indicator, especially in the northern region, where it could signal the potential for drought. Keywords Precipitation · Concentration index · Entropy-based concentration index · Seasonal precipitation · Precipitation trend
1 Introduction In recent years, concerns about the possible effects of climate change have led to the several investigations focused on the analysis of the behavior and trends of climatological variables. Among these variables, one of the most investigated has been precipitation due to the updated results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which reported * Gerardo Núñez‑González [email protected] 1
Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Departamento de Ingenierías, Av. Independencia Nacional 151, Autlán de Navarro, Jalisco, México
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Natural Hazards
an increase in heavy precipitation during the last century. It was found that in most cases, precipitation has become much heavier than average (Trenberth et al. 2007). This conclusion has been supported by De Luis et al. (2011) and Caloiero (2014). The interest in the analysis of the precipitation behavior is due to the potential consequences of a change in precipitation behavior. As highlighted by Ferrari et al. (2013), changes in precipitation may be problematic for economic activities related to agriculture, energy produ
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