Classification of daily weather types in Colombia: a tool to evaluate human health risks due to temperature variability
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Classification of daily weather types in Colombia: a tool to evaluate human health risks due to temperature variability D. J. Roncancio 1
&
L. Lecha 2 & A.C. Nardocci 1
Received: 17 July 2019 / Revised: 17 June 2020 / Accepted: 30 June 2020 # ISB 2020
Abstract The building of knowledge about current risks from changes in air temperature has been established as critical for informing the starting point for human health risk assessments in a climate-changing world. The study presented in this paper provides the application of the maximum/minimum temperature complex method in Colombia to identify the simultaneous behavior of daily extremes of air temperature and provide a tool to assess human health risks due to temperature variability. An established classification of mean temperatures exists for the country, and maximum and minimum temperatures have been studied but never as simultaneous variables. The max/min temperature complex analysis aims to describe the air temperature regime of a particular place by studying the frequency of simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily temperatures. The study consisted of the construction of a contingency table that combines the behavior of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures using a subdivision of 5 °C intervals. A 5-year (2010–2015)-long dataset of 171 weather stations from the entire territory was prepared by identifying, filtering, and completing the missing data. Frequencies of occurrence of each interval were arranged in descending order to select the intervals of frequencies above 10%. Then, they were classified into categories, types, and subtypes. Six categories, seven types, and fifty-one subtypes were identified and mapped to ascertain their geographical distribution. In contrast with other climate regime classifications, our study found a regionalization of daily extremes of temperature that can be analyzed in different scales of time and space to aid health risk analysis. Keywords Extreme temperature . Daily temperature analysis . Climate variability . Colombia
Introduction The consequences of climate change over health estimated in the recent years have resulted in the rising interest in the study of direct effects of air temperature on human health. It is anticipated that an increase in variability in future temperatures and extreme weather events will ensue in most geographical regions (Stocker et al. 2013). Watts et al. (2015) consider that the frequency and severity of heatwaves are likely to increase, and this fact, combined with the projected demographical changes, will lead to an increase in population exposure to * D. J. Roncancio [email protected] 1
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, Av. Doutor Arnaldo 715, São Paulo, SP 01246-904, Brazil
2
Center of Environmental Research and Services of Villa Clara, Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba
extreme temperature events. However, many locations can experience extreme low temperatures as well as extreme heat. These are essential cons
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