Climate Change and its Effects on Water Resources Issues of National

National and global security can be assessed in many ways but one underlying factor for all humanity is access to reliable sources of water for drinking, sanitation, food production and manufacturing industry. In many parts of the world, population growth

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NATO Science for Peace and Security Series This Series presents the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme: Science for Peace and Security (SPS). The NATO SPS Programme supports meetings in the following Key Priority areas: (1) ­Defence Against Terrorism; (2) Countering other Threats to Security and (3) NATO, ­Partner and Mediterranean Dialogue Country Priorities. The types of meeting supported are generally "­Advanced Study Institutes" and "Advanced Research Workshops". The NATO  SPS Series ­collects ­together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO's "Partner" or "Mediterranean Dialogue" countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of participants and contributors only; they should not ­necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but ­informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action Following a transformation of the programme in 2006 the Series has been re-named and  re-organised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from ­meetings ­supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science ­Series. The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division. Sub-Series A. B. C. D. E.

Chemistry and Biology Physics and Biophysics Environmental Security Information and Communication Security Human and Societal Dynamics

http://www.nato.int/science http://www.springer.com http://www.iospress.nl

Series C: Environmental Security

Springer Springer Springer IOS Press IOS Press

Climate Change and its Effects on Water Resources Issues of National and Global Security

edited by

Alper Baba

Gökmen Tayfur

Izmir Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir, Turkey

Izmir Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, Izmir, Turkey

Orhan Gündüz

Ken W.F. Howard

Dokuz Eylül University, Department of Environmental Engineering, Izmir, Turkey

University of Toronto at Scarborough, Scarborough, ON, Canada and

Michael J. Friedel U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO, U.S.A.

Antonio Chambel University of Evora, Department of Geosciences, Evora, Portugal

Published in cooperation with NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources – Issues of National and Global Security Cesme, Izmir, Turkey 1–4 September, 2010

Library of Congress Control Number: 2011929336

ISBN 978-94-007-1145-7 (PB) ISBN 978-94-007-1142-6 (HB) ISBN 978-94-007-1143-3 (e-book) DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-1143-3

Published by Springer, P.O. B