Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan
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Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop models in Pakistan Jamshad Hussain 1 & Tasneem Khaliq 1 & Senthold Asseng 2 & Umer Saeed 1 & Ashfaq Ahmad 1 & Burhan Ahmad 3 & Ishfaq Ahmad 2 & Muhammad Fahad 4 & Muhammad Awais 5 & Asmat Ullah 6 & Gerrit Hoogenboom 7 Received: 19 August 2017 / Accepted: 30 August 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Comparing outputs of multiple climate and crop models is an option to assess the uncertainty in simulations in a changing climate. The use of multiple wheat models under five plausible future simulated climatic conditions is rarely found in literature. CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, CROPSIM-Wheat, and APSIM-Wheat models were calibrated with observed data form eleven sowing dates (15 October to 15 March) of irrigated wheat trails at Faisalabad, Pakistan, to explore close to real climate changing impacts and adaptations. Twenty-nine GCM of CMIP5 were used to generate future climate scenarios during 2040–2069 under RCP 8.5. These scenarios were categorized among five climatic conditions (Cool/Wet, Cool/Dry, Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Middle) on the basis of monthly changes in temperature and rainfall of wheat season using a stretched distribution approach (STA). The five GCM at Faisalabad and Layyah were selected and used in the wheat multimodels set to CO2 571 ppm. In the future, the temperature of both locations will elevate 2–3 °C under the five climatic conditions, although Faisalabad will
* Jamshad Hussain [email protected]
1
Agro-climatology laboratory, Department of agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
2
Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
3
Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan
4
Department of Agronomy, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan
5
Islamia University Bahawalpur-Pakistan, Bahawalpur, Pakistan
6
Directorate of Agronomy, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan
7
Institute for Sustainable Food Systems 184 Rogers Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Climatic Change
be drier and Layyah will be wetter as compared with baseline conditions. Climate change impacts were quantified on wheat sown on different dates, including 1 November, 15 November, and 30 November which showed average reduction at semiarid and arid environment by 23.5%, 19.8%, and 31%, respectively. Agronomic and breeding options offset the climate change impacts and also increased simulated yield about 20% in all climatic conditions. The number of GCMs was considerably different in each quadrate of STA, showing the uncertainty in possible future climatic conditions of both locations. Uncertainty among wheat models was higher at Layyah as compared with Faisalabad. Under Hot/Dry and Hot/Wet climatic conditions, wheat models were the most uncertain to simulate impacts and adaptations. DSSAT-Nwheat and APSIM-Wheat were the most and least sensitive to changing temperature among yea
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