Climate factors during key periods affect the comprehensive crop losses due to drought in Southern China
- PDF / 3,640,391 Bytes
- 13 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 102 Downloads / 163 Views
Climate factors during key periods affect the comprehensive crop losses due to drought in Southern China Qiang Zhang1,2 · Lanying Han3 · Jian Zeng1 · Xing Wang3 · Jingjing Lin3 Received: 25 October 2019 / Accepted: 13 July 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Southern China is a major grain-producing area, but has been suffering from increasingly serious droughts caused by global warming. As a result, crop losses have become serious. To provide insights into these losses, we obtained data to support a systematic and comprehensive analysis of how agricultural drought has caused crop losses from 1961 to 2011 and of the relationship between these changes and the climatic factors responsible for the losses. We found an obvious increase in the loss of crops due to agricultural drought in southern China, with the greatest increase in crop loss in the southwest and smaller increases in the south and southeast. Moreover, because each crop growth stage is affected differently by climatic factors and because the values of these factors show an uneven seasonal distribution, the losses were greatest when changes in various climatic factors occurred during key crop developmental periods. The fittings of the relationship between crop loss and various climatic factors was often strongest based on data from key developmental periods rather than based on data for the whole year. In addition, we found improved prediction of losses using multiple regression, and developed a model for assessing crop losses. Our results provide a scientific reference for developing methods to evaluate the losses caused by agricultural drought in southern China. Keywords Agricultural drought · Crop losses · Comprehensive loss rate · Climatic risks · Key developmental period · Predictive model
1 Introduction China is located in an area that frequently experiences serious drought (Huang et al. 1997). These droughts have caused huge losses (Li et al. 2003a), damaging China’s economic development. Agricultural production depends critically on climate conditions, and is particularly sensitive to drought * Qiang Zhang [email protected] * Lanying Han [email protected] 1
Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China
2
Meteorology Bureau of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China
3
Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, No. 2070, East Donggang Road, Lanzhou 730000, China
(Grayson 2013). In China, drought sufficiently severe to reduce crop yield by at least 10%, affects an average of more than 24.43 × 106 ha and the annual grain loss caused by drought reached as high as 30 × 106 t (Yang 1997), which accounted for more than 60% of the total loss caused by natural factors and approximately equaled the annual grain consumption of a mid-sized country. Therefore, agricultural drought is a severe challenge
Data Loading...
