Comparing transformation pathways across major economies
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Comparing transformation pathways across major economies R. Schaeffer 1 & A. Köberle 1,2 & H. L. van Soest 3,4 & C. Bertram 5 & G. Luderer 5 & K. Riahi 6 & V. Krey 6 & D. P. van Vuuren 3,4 & E. Kriegler 5 & S. Fujimori 7,8 & W. Chen 9 & C. He 10 & Z. Vrontisi 11 & S. Vishwanathan 12 & A. Garg 12 & R. Mathur 13 & S. Shekhar 13 & K. Oshiro 14 & F. Ueckerdt 5 & G. Safonov 15 & G. Iyer 16 & K. Gi 17 & V. Potashnikov 18 Received: 30 December 2017 / Accepted: 17 August 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C as compared with pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the process by which global integrated assessment model (IAM) teams interacted and derived boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for the different countries. Carbon budgets so derived for the 2011–2050 period were then used in eleven different national energy-economy models and IAMs for producing low-carbon pathways for the seven countries in line with a well below 2 °C world up to 2050. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting pathways and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them. Our results indicate quite different mitigation pathways for the different countries, shown by the way emission reductions are split between different sectors of their economies and technological alternatives. Keywords Climate change mitigation . Paris agreement . Carbon budgets . National transformation pathways . National energy-economy models . Integrated assessment models
This article is part of a Special Issue on “National Low-Carbon Development Pathways” edited by Roberto Schaeffer, Valentina Bosetti, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef van Vuuren, and John Weyant Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002837-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* R. Schaeffer [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction One hundred and ninety-three governments adopted the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). The agreement established a new bottom-up process in which countries have pledged (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs/NDCs1) for reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until 2025 or 2030. At the same time, the Paris Agreement defines the long-term objective to limit global temperature increase to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. The (I)NDCs and their consistency with the long-term temperature goals are planned to be regularly ass
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