Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective
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Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective Dominik Paprotny1 Accepted: 6 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Are countries at a low level of socio-economic development catching up with developed countries over time or rather falling further behind? Existing work on the subject is not conclusive, partially due to methodological differences. The aim of the paper is to carry out a broader analysis with longer time series and a more diverse set of indicators. The study divides countries of the world into 21 developed “benchmark” countries and 156 developing countries. The distance between the benchmark and developing countries is measured using the “time lags” method, applied here to nine indicators covering topics such as the economy, health, education and the environment. The study further utilizes a probabilistic approach to extrapolate missing historical data for developing countries, so that the analysis can cover a full century starting in 1920 and ending with short-term projections to year 2020. The study finds that a majority of developing countries, and the population-weighted developing world as a whole, has reduced its lag in most indicators between 1920 and 2020. Progress was unevenly distributed, with East Asian and European countries converging the most with the benchmark, while most African countries have diverged along with some American ones. Catch-up in education attainment and life expectancy has been more successful than in infant survival rate, GDP per capita or technology adoption. The findings are put in context of United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, showing how the time lag method could improve setting targets for some of the goals. Further, time lags are used to analyze the current demographic, economic and political situation of developing countries, identifying opportunities and risks for future catch-up with developed countries. Keywords Time lags · Global development · Health indicators · Economic indicators · Environmental indicators · Sustainable development goals
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s1120 5-020-02488-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Dominik Paprotny paprotny@gfz‑potsdam.de 1
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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1 Introduction The problem of disparities between developed and developing countries has long been an interest of scientists (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1992; Baumol 1986). The origin of this global inequality is seen in the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution, which brought wealth to some countries, leaving the rest behind (Deaton 2014; Piketty 2014). Maddison (2001, 2008) has shown that the divergence in income and life expectancy has started even earlier—already by the beginning of the early modern era. This raises questions about the trajectory of recent and future inequa
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