Critical appraisal and external validation of a prognostic model for survival of people living with HIV/AIDS who underwe
- PDF / 980,588 Bytes
- 14 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 1 Downloads / 163 Views
(2020) 4:19
Diagnostic and Prognostic Research
RESEARCH
Open Access
Critical appraisal and external validation of a prognostic model for survival of people living with HIV/AIDS who underwent antiretroviral therapy Junfeng Wang1*†, Tanwei Yuan2†, Xuemei Ling3†, Quanmin Li3, Xiaoping Tang3, Weiping Cai3, Huachun Zou2,4* and Linghua Li3*
Abstract Background: HIV/AIDS remains a leading cause of death worldwide. Recently, a model has been developed in Wenzhou, China, to predict the survival of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) who underwent antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to evaluate the methodological quality and validate the model in an external population-based cohort. Methods: Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the risk of bias of the Wenzhou model. Data were from the National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program database. We included PLWHA treated between February 2004 and December 2019 in a tertiary hospital in Guangzhou city, China. The endpoint was all-cause deaths and assessed until January 2020. We assessed the discrimination performance of the model by Harrell’s overall C-statistics and time-dependent C-statistics and calibration by comparing observed survival probabilities estimated with the Kaplan–Meier method versus predicted survival probabilities. To assess the potential prediction value of age and gender which were precluded in developing the Wenzhou model, we compared the discriminative ability of the original model with an extended model added with age and gender. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] † Junfeng Wang, Tanwei Yuan and Xuemei Ling contributed equally to this work. 1 Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3584 CG Utrecht, the Netherlands 2 School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China 3 Guangzhou Eighth People’s Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, No.627 Dongfeng Dong Road, Guangzhou 510060, Guangdong, China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.or
Data Loading...
