Crowd Disasters and Simulation of Panic Situations
One of the most tragic collective behaviors is a panic stampede [11.1–11.9], as it often leads to the death of people who are either crushed or trampled down by others. While this behavior is comprehensible in life-threatening situations like fires in cro
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11. Crowd Disasters and Simulation of Panic Situations Dirk Helbing, Illes J. Farkas, and Tamas Vicsek
One of the most tragic collective behaviors is a panic stampede [11.1-11.9], as it often leads to the death of people who are either crushed or trampled down by others. While this behavior is comprehensible in life-threatening situations like fires in crowded buildings [11.10,11.11]' it is hardly understood in cases of a rush for good seats at a pop concert [11.12], or without any obvious reasons. Unfortunately, the frequency of such disasters is increasing [11.12], as growing population densities combined with easier transportation lead to greater mass events like pop concerts, sporting events, and demonstrations. Nevertheless, systematic studies of panics [11.8] are rare [11.5,11.10,11.12]. Moreover, there is a scarcity of quantitative theories capable of predicting the dynamics of human crowds [11.13-11.15]. Here we show that simulations of pedestrian behavior can give valuable insights into the mechanisms and preconditions of panic, jamming, and the observed 'faster-is-slower effect'. We also provide clues to practical ways of minimizing the related tragedies. Furthermore, we identify an optimal strategy for collective problem solving in crisis situations, corresponding to a suitable mixture of individualistic and herding behavior.
11.1 Introduction With some exceptions, panics are observed in cases of scarce or dwindling resources [11.8,11.10]' which are either required for survival or anxiously desired. They are usually distinguished into escape panics ('stampedes', bank, or stock market panics) and acquisitive panics ('crazes', speculative manias) [11.5,11.6]' but in some cases this classification is questionable [11.12].
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Fig. 11.0. Panicking football fans trying to escape the football stadium in Sheffield. Hardly anybody manages to pass the open door, because of the clogging effect occurring in crowds at high pressures
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Dirk Helbing et al.
It is believed that panicking people are obsessed by short-term personal interests uncontrolled by social and cultural constraints [11.5,11.10]. This is possibly a result of the reduced attention in situations of fear [11.10], which also causes alternatives like side exits to be mostly ignored [11.11]. It is, however, often attributed to social contagion [11.1-11.10,11.12]' i.e. a transition from individual to mass psychology, in which individuals transfer control over their actions to others [11.6], leading to conformity [11.16]. This 'herding behavior' (regarding the herding behavior of stock markt dealers cf. Chap. 14) is irrational, as it often leads to bad overall results like dangerous overcrowding and slower escape [11.6,11.11,11.12]. In this way, herding behavior increases the fatalities, or, more generally, the damage in the crisis faced. The various socio-psychological theories for this contagion assume hypnotic effects, rapport, mutual excitation of a primordial instinct, circular reactions, social facilitation (see the summary by Brown [11.4]),
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