Cultural Influences in Probabilistic Thinking
Decisions concerning business, industry, employment, sports, health, weather predictions, law, risk and opinion polling are made using an understanding of probabilistic reasoning. The importance of probability in everyday life and workplace has led to cal
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Abstract Decisions concerning business, industry, employment, sports, health, weather predictions, law, risk and opinion polling are made using an understanding of probabilistic reasoning. The importance of probability in everyday life and workplace has led to calls for an increased attention to probability in the mathematics curriculum. A number of research studies from different theoretical perspectives show that students tend to have conceptions about probability which impact on their learning. The chapter has five sections. The first section outlines the importance of probability in both formal (school) and out-of-school situations and makes a case for teaching probability. The second section considers the different interpretations of probability. Although we use informal probabilistic notions daily in making decisions, research on probability has mostly focused on the classical and frequentist approaches, research on the subjective approach is almost non-existent. Further, the common culture may influence the informal ideas of probability. Yet, there appears to be minimal literature that deals with the educational implications of the role of culture. Hence, the third section draws on mathematics education research to discuss the interaction between mathematical cognition and social settings and culture. It will be argued that probability is no different and early notions as well misconceptions need to be addressed via this lens. It would help clarify the aims, purpose and limitations of probability education. The next section will report on the effects of culture on students’ probabilistic thinking. I will draw on examples from my work and few others who have studied cultural influences on probabilistic thinking to explain how probability is related to human culture and tied to cultural practices. The final section will consider the issues arising out of the literature and offer suggestions for meeting these challenges. Specifically, suggestions for teaching, assessment and further research will be outlined.
S. Sharma (B) The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand e-mail: [email protected] E.J. Chernoff, B. Sriraman (eds.), Probabilistic Thinking, Advances in Mathematics Education, DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-7155-0_35, © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014
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1 Introduction Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. . . but time and chance happen to them all. (Ecclesiastes 9:11, English Standard Version 2001) King Solomon, the writer of the above proverb, perceived that chance (probability) is a force that none of us can avoid, it is an essential part of our everyday life. Probably the proverb dates from when the term chance was first being introduced. In the current world, probability not only has emerged as mainstream curriculum, it has become an essential component of numerate education (Gal 2005; Schield 2010; Zimmermann and Jones 2002). It is as important as mastering elementary arithmetic and literacy skills. Probability
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