Degrees of Belief
The idea that belief comes in degrees is based on the observation that we are more certain of some things than of others. Various theories try to give accounts of how measures of this confidence do or ought to behave, both as far as the internal mental co
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SYNTHESE LIBRARY STUDIES IN EPISTEMOLOGY, LOGIC, METHODOLOGY, AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE
Editor-in-Chief:
VINCENT F. HENDRICKS, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark JOHN SYMONS, University of Texas at El Paso, U.S.A.
Honorary Editor:
JAAKKO HINTIKKA, Boston University, U.S.A.
Editors: DIRK VAN DALEN, University of Utrecht, The Netherlands THEO A.F. KUIPERS, University of Groningen, The Netherlands TEDDY SEIDENFELD, Carnegie Mellon University, U.S.A. PATRICK SUPPES, Stanford University, California, U.S.A. ´ JAN WOLENSKI, Jagiellonian University, Krak´ow, Poland
VOLUME 342
DEGREES OF BELIEF EDITED BY Franz Huber University of Konstanz, Germany
Christoph Schmidt-Petri University of Leipzig, Germany
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Editors Dr. Franz Huber Formal Epistemology Research Group Zukunftskolleg and Department of Philosophy University of Konstanz P.O. Box X906 78457 Konstanz Germany [email protected] www.uni-konstanz.de/philosophie/huber
ISBN: 978-1-4020-9197-1
Dr. Christoph Schmidt-Petri University of Leipzig Department of Philosophy 04009 Leipzig Germany [email protected]
e-ISBN: 978-1-4020-9198-8
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-9198-8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008935558 c Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
Printed on acid-free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com
Foreword
This book has grown out of a conference on “Degrees of Belief” that was held at the University of Konstanz in July 2004, organised by Luc Bovens, Wolfgang Spohn, and the editors. The event was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG), the Philosophy, Probability, and Modeling (PPM) Group, and the Center for Junior Research Fellows (since 2008: Zukunftskolleg) at the University of Konstanz. The PPM Group itself – of which the editors were members at the time – was sponsored by a Sofia Kovalevskaja Award by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, and the Program for the Investment in the Future (ZIP) of the German Government to Luc Bovens, who co-directed the PPM Group with Stephan Hartmann. The publication of this book received further support from the Emmy Noether Junior Research Group Formal Epistemology at the Zukunftskolleg and the Department of Philosophy at the University of Konstanz, directed by Franz Huber, and funded by the DFG. We thank everyone involved for their support. Dedicated to the memory of Philippe Smets and Henry Kyburg. Konstanz, Germany
Franz Huber Christoph Schmidt-Petri
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Contents
Belief and Degrees of Belief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Franz Huber
1
Part I Plain Belief
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