Demographic Transition Theory

The demographic transition is the change in the human condition from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. Death is now less capricious and most people live long lives. Women no longer average six or seven births but in mos

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Demographic Transition Theory

Demographic Transition Theory by

John C. Caldwell The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

Contributing Co-Authors

Bruce K. Caldwell Pat Caldwell Peter F. McDonald Thomas Schindlmayr

A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN-10 ISBN-13 ISBN-10 ISBN-13

1-4020-4373-2 (HB) 978-1-4020-4373-4 (HB) 1-4020-4498-4 (e-book) 978-1-4020-4498-4 (e-book)

Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved  C 2006 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed in the Netherlands.

CONTENTS

Preface ....................................................................................

vii

Introduction 1. The analytical approach .......................................................... Part I:

3

Issues of Early Transition

2. Pretransitional population control and equilibrium..........................

23

3. Was there a Neolithic mortality crisis? ........................................

51

4. Population intensification theory ...............................................

71

5. On net intergenerational wealth flows: An update...........................

89

6. Fertility control in the classical world: Was there an ancient fertility transition?................................................................. 111 7. Family size control by infanticide in the great agrarian societies of Asia.................................................................... 131 Part II:

The Modern Transition

8. Transmuting the industrial revolution into mortality decline .............. 157 9. The delayed Western fertility decline: An examination of English-speaking countries................................................... 181 10. Regional paths to fertility transition............................................ 217 11. The globalization of fertility behavior ......................................... 249 v

vi

CONTENTS

12. Social upheaval and fertility decline ........................................... 273 13. Demographic theory: A long view .............................................

301

14. Policy responses to low fertility and its consequences: A global survey ....................................................................

321

15. Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: A search for commonalities...................................................... 349 16. Back to the future: The great mortality crises ................................ 387 Index ...................................................................................... 397

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