Development of pacific exposure dataset for use in catastrophe risk assessment
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Development of pacific exposure dataset for use in catastrophe risk assessment Sheng‑Lin Lin1 · Juli Ungaro2 · Johnny Tarry Nimau3 · Sachindra Singh4 · Keleni Raqisia4 Received: 15 July 2018 / Accepted: 1 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract An exposure dataset is one of the critical components of catastrophe risk modelling. It can also be one of the most difficult to create. When small numbers of buildings are involved, less than a thousand or so, it may be practicable to view each building and to acquire all the necessary attributes with a reasonable level of confidence. For regional or national-scale projects, however, the task is next to impossible. Ideally, for each building within the modelling areas we would know the location and value, and have enough structural information to underpin the assignment of vulnerability functions for each of several hazards. Such a dataset does not exist in the Pacific region, though various exposure databases have been developed in the past couple of decades. Instead, we have developed a systematic approach to populate and maintain a somewhat less rigorous, but practicable, exposure dataset for use in catastrophe risk modelling. In this paper, a brief review of previous development of exposure databases in the Pacific region is presented, followed by an overview of each class of available data that is used to develop the exposure dataset. Next, the methodologies adopted are illustrated, and application to a test case in Tanna Island, Vanuatu is described. Finally, the proposed exposure dataset development is discussed. Keywords Exposure dataset · Catastrophe risk modelling · Building attributes · Occupancy model
1 Introduction The Pacific region is prone to many natural hazards (e.g. earthquake, flood, volcanic eruption, tsunami and cyclone) which can cause significant impact to communities due to economic losses, damage to the built environment and crops and threat to populations. Risk * Sheng‑Lin Lin [email protected] 1
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
2
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
3
National Disaster Management Office, Port Vila, Vanuatu
4
Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC), Suva, Fiji
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
assessment is a fundamental tool underpinning evidence-based decision making on catastrophe risk management, and could be used to improve community resilience in the Pacific. For example, land use planning decisions can quantify cost and benefits relating to risk management. Immediately after an event, a near-real time impact assessment will provide emergency response officers with guidance to advise the public and prioritise resources. Or an asset owner seeks to purchase insurance and wants to know what losses could be incurred, and with what probability. An insurance company needs that same information to set premiums and to purchase reinsurance. These issues can all be addressed by a risk assessment that identifies the likely losses, in terms of sev
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