Social Risk Assessment Index System by Composite Catastrophe Models: A Case Study in Contemporary China
Social risk refers to the possibility of a potential social unrest, and social conflicts and social damage states caused by uncertain factors in various areas. This uncertainty comes from ecology, social politics, economy, culture and other fields. Modern
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Social Risk Assessment Index System by Composite Catastrophe Models: A Case Study in Contemporary China Hong Li, Huifeng Zhang, Feng Wang and Ziqi Wang
Abstract Social risk refers to the possibility of a potential social unrest, and social conflicts and social damage states caused by uncertain factors in various areas. This uncertainty comes from ecology, social politics, economy, culture and other fields. Modern risks refer to dangers and insecurity happening in the systematic process of modernization. Threats of modern power led to the suspicion of all relevant consequences of modern globalization. In this paper, we investigate the problems of applying the catastrophe theory in social risk assessment by identifying potential indexes (known as crashes), which not only avoids the subjective assessment to some extent, but also gives an objective system to explore social risks. Keywords Social risk model
· Quantitative analysis · Catastrophe theory · Mathematic
133.1 Introduction Although brilliant achievements have been registered in the economic construction of China, tough issues such as environmental pollution, ecological damage, extreme disparity between the rich and the poor have been brought by the highly compressed modernization process, the rapid development of urbanization and the accelerating social transformation [9]. Moreover, multiple symbiosis, interactive coupling, and H. Li · H. Zhang · F. Wang Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, People’s Republic of China H. Li Emergency Management and Reconstruction in Post-disaster, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, People’s Republic of China Z. Wang (B) Institute of Emergency Management and Reconstruction in Post-disaster, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, People’s Republic of China e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 J. Xu et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 502, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-1837-4_133
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resonant social conflicts have also been triggered, threatening to the very peace of human daily life and causing too many complex social problems. An existing risk can often be found after severe damages [7]. In other words, we may decrease or prevent the immeasurable losses by assessing the risk before it evolved into a damage event to the society. However, first of all, we must be aware that the development of human society is always accompanied by social risks in a historical perspective [8]. As an old saying goes, “Risk is never zero, but it can be small”. So, in consideration of the risk’s uncertainty, it is an urgent need to deal with the various social risks so as to avoid the unimaginable destructiveness in the future. A “risk” referring to “potential damage” (a damage that will not occur with certainties, but with a probability p where 0 < p < 1) has been studied in many aspects in a range of different way [11]. To sum up, there are two ways t
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