Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari
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Does comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models influence projected changes of mean and high flows in the Godavari River basin? Vimal Mishra 1,2 & Harsh Shah 1 & M. Rocío Rivas López 3 & Anastasia Lobanova 3 & Valentina Krysanova 3 Received: 21 January 2020 / Accepted: 25 August 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Understanding the projected changes in the mean and high flows remains a significant challenge due to uncertainty arising from global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models. Moreover, the calibration approaches used for hydrological models can influence the climate change impact assessment. We use the combination of three hydrological models, four global climate models, and two RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) to analyze the projected changes in mean flow, high flow, and the frequency of high flow under the projected future climate in the Godavari River basin (GRB) until the gauge Tekra. The two evaluation approaches: a simple approach (TASK A) based on the calibration and validation at a single streamflow gauge station and a comprehensive approach (TASK B) based on multi-variable and multisite calibration and validation and trend analysis were employed to evaluate the hydrological models. The differences between the projected changes in mean and high flows calculated using models after TASK A and TASK B were estimated. Our results show that the differences can be up to 10–13% in mean annual flow and high flow, and up to 40% in high flow frequency. The comprehensively evaluated hydrological models were chosen for impact assessment, and they project increases in mean and high flows, and the frequency of high flow at all four gauge stations in the GRB. The projected increases are higher under RCP 8.5 and in the End century (2071–2100). Our results demonstrate the importance of the comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models in advance of climate change impact assessment. This article is part of a Special Issue on “How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment”, edited by Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann and Zbigniew Kundzewicz Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002847-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Vimal Mishra [email protected] 1
Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
2
Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
3
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
Climatic Change
Keywords Climate change . Godavari River basin . Indian River basin . VIC model . Model calibration . High flow
1 Introduction Climate change poses an enormous risk to water availability and water management (Barnett et al. 2005; Immerzeel et al. 2010). Freshwater availability under climate change can affect the water requirements for irrigation and area under irrigation (Elliott et al. 2014). For instance, Elliott et al. (2
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