Dynamic assessment and early warning of ecological security: a case study of the Yangtze river urban agglomeration
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Dynamic assessment and early warning of ecological security: a case study of the Yangtze river urban agglomeration Qianqian Huang1 · Benhong Peng1,2 · Guo Wei3 · Anxia Wan1 Received: 9 June 2020 / Accepted: 17 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Ecological security is vital to the survival of human beings and critical to the sustainable development of socioeconomic environment. In view of the deficiencies of the static assessment of ecological security, in this paper ,a dynamical evaluation on the ecological security of urban agglomerations is conducted by utilizing an index system developed from the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response model. Further, an empirical study is carried out for the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration to explore the ecological security alarms and change rules: Incorporating the statistical data from 2005 to 2017 into the investigation, the combined weight method is applied to calculate the weight of ecological safety over ecological security contribution, and the Moran’s I index is implemented to analyze the changes in the spatial pattern. The results show that (1) The ecological security index of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration exhibits a smaller fluctuation primarily caused by the transformation of economic development mode, and the overall ecological security has been improved since 2005 from less safe to security level in general. (2) Spatial differences exist between North and South as well as between urban agglomerations, and the overall ecological security is improved due to ecological protection measures and industrial structure adjustment, and (3) The levels of early warning for these cities in the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration differ, Varying between medium level and severe level. Furthermore, It is also found that human activities greatly impact the ecological security, and the intensity of land development is the greatest threat. Keywords Ecological security evaluation · Driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) model · Dynamic evaluation · Early warning analysis
Benhong Peng, Guo Wei, and Anxia Wan have contributed equally. * Qianqian Huang [email protected] * Benhong Peng [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction With the acceleration of regional integration and urban cluster development, urban agglomerations have become important carriers for developed countries to enhance their competitiveness. Due to the continuous expansion of the urban agglomeration space, the rapid development of human society and the hunger for resources and the environment are being intensified, causing a series of ecological problems such as lack of water resources, reduction of ecological land use, and weaker emergency protection system. Since 2000, researchers on ecological security at the international level have incorporated the Harrison Plan, the New Millennium Global Ecosystem Assessment Project, and the Impact of Genetic Bioengineering on Ecological Sec
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