Estimation of vessel collision frequency in the Yangtze River estuary considering dynamic ship domains
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Estimation of vessel collision frequency in the Yangtze River estuary considering dynamic ship domains Tian Chai1 · Jinxian Weng2 · Guorong Li2 Received: 11 December 2018 / Accepted: 11 November 2019 © The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers (JASNAOE) 2019
Abstract With the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data collected from Donghai Navigation Safety Administration, this study aims to estimate vessel collision frequency in the Yangtze River estuary water areas considering dynamic ship domain sizes. To take into account the possible impacts of ship type, time of the day, and ship relative speed, ship domain size is further modeled as linear functions of these influencing factors based on our questionnaire survey data. Ship results reveal that the calculated vessel collision frequency in the Yangtze River estuary water areas is about 4.29 × 10−3 per ship-year, in which cargo ships have the highest vessel collision frequency, while fishing ships have the lowest frequency. Moreover, head-on collision is the collision type that has the largest collision frequency, followed by overtaking collision and crossing collision in the Yangtze River estuary. Big-sized vessels (e.g., Container ship and Cargo ship) are more likely to encounter head-on collisions, while the majority of small vessels (e.g., Fishing ship and Passenger ship) involved in overtaking collisions. Because of higher vessel traffic flow and density, the daytime period is associated with a larger vessel collision frequency, as compared with the nighttime period. Keywords Vessel collision frequency · AIS · Ship domain · Maritime safety · Distribution
1 Introduction In recent years, the construction of Shanghai International Shipping Center (SISC) has been continuously promoted. The Yangtze River estuary plays an important role in the development process of SISC, which is a must pass for imports and exports of the ports along the Yangtze River. Due to the superior natural conditions of this water area, cargoes throughput continues to increase year by year [1]. However, the traffic volume in these strategic water areas is also increasing significantly, and the complexity of the navigational conditions is getting higher. More specifically, more than 300 vessels are passing through the estuary every day, with an annual throughput of about 100,000 vessels. The rapidly growth of vessel density leads to a consequence that the corresponding accident rate goes higher and higher.
* Jinxian Weng [email protected] 1
College of Navigation, Jimei University, Xiamen, China
College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
2
It was reported that the collision was the major accident type in the Yangtze River estuary water areas during the years between 2006 and 2010 [2]. Hence, the navigational safety of vessels pass through the Yangtze River estuary is a matter of great concern to relevant management department. In the past 30 years, several studies have been carried out to i
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