Dynamic visioning for dynamic environments
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Dynamic visioning for dynamic environments G Winch University of Plymouth Business School This article considers the particular challenges to organisations facing major change in turbulent times. It brie¯y reviews the use of visioning tools, especially scenario planning, to support the process of developing strategies requiring major change, and the communication of these plans to key employees. However, it deduces that written scenarios may not adequately portray the dynamic nature of the change, nor provide managers with a vivid enough picture of the postchange environment. System dynamics has been identi®ed as a powerful tool for bringing such a dynamic view, and case examples are offered which use both the diagramming techniques in a qualitative manner and quantitative models to simulate the possible futures. Such simulators enable managers to pre-experience the changed environment, preparing them better to face the transients of the change implementation and the challenges of managing the post-change situation. Future developments and uses of system dynamics in `computer-aided visioning' are considered. Keywords: system dynamics; visioning; change; scenarios; strategic planning
Introduction As the pace of change, driven by globalisation, organisational rethinking, technological innovation and IT, continues unabated, managers in the new millennium will be challenged to look to new thinkingÐthinking not predicated on past successful formulaeÐand the need for `tools that can help managers cope with change' has been identi®ed as a clear priority.1 Visioning, or `Future State Visioning'2 is a term that has been applied to the activity and process of characterising possible future states in ways that they can be used to enhance understanding, to reframe thinking about current decisions, to formulate new decisions and identify contingencies, and=or to raise the decision-makers' con®dence in their ability to manage through changes and new situations. A limited range of techniques is available for helping individuals and groups to envision what the future may bring. This article brie¯y reviews these, speci®cally in terms of how they aid understanding of the dynamic processes in play. It then critically reviews the use of system dynamics based tools as deliverers of dynamic, engaging and lifelike futures for the visioning process. It offers examples of how both the diagramming tools and quantitative simulations can be used to generate and support scenario development, and compares these to the more usual narrative scenario tools. In the context of organisations facing change, it argues that understanding the dynamics of systems in the future is every bit as important as understanding dynamics in the present. Examples are chosen to show that the approach has value in all four phases of change, and that this approach gives a Correspondence: Dr G Winch, University of Plymouth Business School, Drake Circus,
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