Dynamics of Technological Change
Technology is not an end in itself, but a way of satisfying human wants. It shows us how to solve the age-old economic problem of surviving and pros pering in a hard world. But to optimize the benefits of technological advance requires an understanding o
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DYNAMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Louis A. Girifalco The University of Pennsylvania
tnm;I VAN NOSTRAND REINHOLD
~ _ _ _ NewYork
Copyright © 1991 by Van Nostrand Reinhold Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st ed ition 1991
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 90-45717 ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-6511-2 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4684-6509-9 001: 10.1007/978-1-4684-6509-9 All rights reserved. No part of this work covered by the copyright hereon may be reproduced or used in any form by any means-graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems-without written permission of the publisher. Van Nostrand Reinhold 115 Fifth Avenue New York, New York 10003 Chapman and Hall 2-6 Boundary Row London, SEI 8HN, England Thomas Nelson Australia 102 Dodds Street South Melbourne 3205 Victoria, Australia Nelson Canada 1120 Birchmount Road Scarborough, Ontario MIK 5G4, Canada 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 987 6 5 4 3 2 1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Girifalco, L. A. (Louis A.) Dynamics of technological change / Louis A. Girifalco. p. cm. Includes bibliographical reference and index. 1. Technological innovations. I. Title. II. Title. Technological change. T173.9.G57 1991 90-45717 CIP 60O-dc
To the memory of my father who lived his life for family, honor, and truth
and to my advisor, Robert J. Good, who transformed me from a student into a colleague
Contents List of Figures in Text x List of Figures in Appendix 1 List of Tables in Text XIV Preface XVII
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Chapter 1. Basic Concepts of Technological Change 1 Defining Technological Change 1 Measuring Technological Change 8 Theories of Technological Change 12 Determinants of Technological Change 20 Enterprises, Systems, and Hierarchies 28 Five Patterns 30 Interactions Among Systemic Trends 40 A Systemic Model of Technological Change 40 Chapter 2. Technical Progress and Performance 46 Aspects of Technological Progress 46 Measurement of Technical Performance 49 Case Study: Aviation 55 The Learning Curve 60 Production Costs and the Learning Curve 63 Case Study: Farm Tractors 67 Case Study: Underground Coal Mining 73 Chapter 3. Innovation, Research, and Development Clusters and Waves 80 Frequency of Innovation 81 The Origin of Clustering 86 Inventions and Time Lags 88 Innovation and Business Cycles 91 The Origins of Innovations 95 The Effect of Corporate Size 99 Functions of R&D 101 Definitions of Success in R&D 104 Technological Cycles and R&D 106 The Technology-Driven Corporate Cycle 109 Technological Discontinuities 112
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Contents The R&D Portfolio 115 Characteristics of Industrial R&D Determinants of Successful R&D
119 123
Chapter 4. Technological Diffusion and Substitution 130 Technological Diffusion 130 Diffusion Analysis 136 Substitution Analysis 143 Multilevel Substitution 145 The Diesel Locomotive: An Example of Binary Substitution The Diffusion of Radio Broadcasting 154 Steelmaking: An Example of Multilevel Substitution 160 Results of Diffusion and Substitution Studies 165 Nuclear
