Economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers under changing climate: evidence from Pakistan
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers under changing climate: evidence from Pakistan Nasir Mahmood 1,2,3 & Muhammad Arshad 1,3 & Harald Kächele 1,4 & Ayat Ullah 1 & Klaus Müller 1,3 Received: 1 February 2020 / Accepted: 9 June 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Rainfed wheat farming directly depends upon climatic indicators and is mostly at the mercy of climatic extremes. This study analyzed the relationship between the economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers and indicators of climate variability in Pakistan employing a two-stage methodological framework. We used farm household level crop input-output and management data and secondary data on climate. In the first stage, a stochastic production frontier (SPF) approach was used to calculate economic efficiency. Then, in the second stage, the calculated economic efficiency scores were regressed against the temperature threshold, temperature anomaly, and total rainfall, in addition to socioeconomic, institutional, and farm variables, using OLS and quantile regression models. The results showed that temperature anomaly and the number of days when temperatures exceed 30 °C have negative and significant impacts on the economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers. Total rainfall showed positive and significant impacts across both OLS and quantile regression models. Further, we modeled a novel and very important variable in the context of rainfed wheat production in Pakistan, that is, farmers’ participation in trainings in climate-resilient crop farming. This variable showed a positive and highly significant impact on economic efficiency of wheat farmers across all regression models. Our findings call for important policy implications, including developing up-to-date climate resilient adaptation strategies that are particularly focused on rainfed wheat farming. Establishing strong linkages between extension departments and rainfed wheat farmers could help sustain and improve the efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers and hence food and livelihood security. Keywords Climate variability . Economic efficiency . Rainfed wheat . Stochastic production frontier . Quantile regression . Climate resilient crop farming
Introduction Climate change is a major global problem. The problem is serious since the adverse impacts of changing climate can be sensed farther than the place that instigates it (Fahad et al. Responsible Editor: Eyup Dogan * Nasir Mahmood [email protected] 1
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
2
Department of Economics & Agricultural Economics, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
3
Albrecht Daniel Thaer Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University, 10117 Berlin, Germany
4
Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, Schicklerstraße 5, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
2016). Crop farming businesses depend upon and are extremely vulnerable to climate variability, which sig
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