Economics of the International Coal Trade The Renaissance of Steam C
The world today depends on oil, coal and gas (in that order of importance) for over 80% of its primary energy. From the time humans tamed fire, wood or bio-mass became the primary energy source. Coal took over from biomass during the Industrial Revolution
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Lars Schernikau
Economics of the International Coal Trade The Renaissance of Steam Coal
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Dr. Lars Schernikau HMS Bergbau AG Germany
ISBN 978-90-481-9239-7 e-ISBN 978-90-481-9240-3 DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-9240-3 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010929255 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Foreword 1
Coal, the catalyst of the industrial age, is now poised to shape how the world consumes energy in the twenty-first century. The ascendance of oil in the global economy to a looming peak is forcing countries, companies, and consumers to reconsider their relationship to something they cannot live without: energy. And while other sources of energy, such as nuclear, natural gas, and renewables, will all play an ever greater role in serving demand, intelligent observers would be wise not to miss what is perhaps the clearest trend of all: the second coal era is now upon us. The developing world is rapidly electrifying in order to drive economic growth. And electrification means coal. This is particularly true in India and China, where coal offers the cheapest and most reliable route to electric power. These two countries alone will drive 80% of coal consumption growth to 2030. The International Energy Agency expects that global coal consumption will increase by 60% in the next two decades. Lars Schernikau’s The Renaissance of Steam Coal could not come at a better time. Lars’ skill in tracing the long arc of industrial evolution paired with his acute knowledge of the coal market make his arguments both insightful and highly credible. He begins by succinctly framing the problem and distilling our current predicament: we are caught between ‘the Oil Age’ and the ‘the Solar Age’ (by this he means the age of renewables). We are all optimists to some degree, but the realists among us know that renewable energy is not going to completely fill this gap for decades. Where, then, does this leave us? It leaves us with The Renaissance of Steam Coal. Coal is now the world’s fastest growing source of fossil fuel, a position it is expected to hold for the foreseeable future. Yet the coal market is far less well understood than the oil or gas markets. Academics, policymakers, and market participants are faced with the prospect of our collective knowledge about this market not keeping pace with its increasing relevance. Coal, only 30 years ago a localized fuel source, is now a volatile global commodity with banks and hedge funds piling into the once traditional business. Not on
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