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ORIGINAL PAPER

Effect of climate change induced extreme precipitation on landslide activity in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China Dengfeng Zhu 1 & Kun Song 1

&

Jingchao Mu 1 & Haifeng Huang 2 & Hongjian Du 3 & Fanzhe Xiazhuang 1 & Chi Sun 1

Received: 15 July 2019 / Accepted: 7 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract Climate change has caused an increase in extreme rainfall and snowfall in many parts of the world. For example, in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, annual precipitation has gradually increased and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events has become more frequent. As the reservoir water level rises in October, the high water combined with heavy precipitation creates a “special hydrological environment,” which recently caused the Yanguan landslide. The Yanguan landslide is a large-scale soil landslide that has undergone two slides, pushed the Yanguan Road Bridge into the reservoir, and caused serious damage to roads and buildings. In the present study, the combined effects of high water and heavy precipitation on landslide deformation characteristics (movement patterns and evolution processes) have been analyzed and a stability evaluation was conducted through a field investigation and numerical simulation. To comparatively analyze these combined effects of high water and heavy precipitation, a two-dimensional finite element model was created, and four cases of the hydrological environment were calculated with the model. Results show that the factor of safety was maintained in the range of 1.013 to 1.059 before the precipitation conditions changed. However, as heavy precipitation increased in October 2017 (reaching 356.4 mm in 1 month), this “special hydrological environment” potentially decreased the FoS to 0.948, which is 9.6% lower than that observed under normal conditions, and helped drive the Yanguan landslide activity. The analysis of these various combined effects can also indicate the impacts of climate change on landslides in other areas of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Keywords Global climate change . Special hydrological environment . Landslide . Stability evaluation

Introduction In recent years, global warming has raised the world’s average temperature, resulting in an augmentation of extreme rainfall and snowfall in many parts of the world (Donat et al. 2016). The increase in extreme precipitation has not only caused a large number of floods (Chen and Zhai 2013; Easterling et al. 2000; Yao et al. 2008) but also had a direct impact on landslide

* Kun Song [email protected] 1

Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Ministry of Education, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China

2

National Field Observation and Research Station of Landslides in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China

3

Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Australia

disasters (Crozier 2010; Huggel et al. 2010), w