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Effects of human activities on hydrological drought patterns in the Yangtze River Basin, China Donglai Jiao1,2   · Dajiang Wang1 · Haiyang Lv1 Received: 7 May 2020 / Accepted: 25 July 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020

Abstract As an extremely important region for the socioeconomic development of China, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. In recent decades, hydrological droughts have jeopardized regional water supply, local ecosystem services, and economic development in this region. This study simulates the characteristics of hydrological droughts in the YRB using the PCR-GLOBWB v2.0 model and the variable threshold method. High-spatial-resolution (about 10 km) PCR-GLOBWB v2.0 simulations considering the effects of human activities closely match the observed hydrological data for the YRB. Thus, the results indicate that human activities directly influence the tempospatial characteristics of hydrological droughts in the YRB. Reservoir operation decreases the multi-year monthly discharge but increases low flow in the severe drought years in the middle and lower subbasins of the YRB. These findings highlight the uneven effects of human activities on hydrological droughts in the YRB. In conclusion, anthropogenic activities must be considered when developing future mitigation and adaptation strategies for the YRB. Keywords  Hydrological drought · PCR-GLOBWB v2.0 model · Human activities · Yangtze River Basin · Three Gorges Dam

1 Introduction Hydrological drought is a complex phenomenon caused by the shortage of surface and/ or subsurface water storage for an extended period of time (Hisdal and Tallaksen 2003). This phenomenon is directly related to urban, industrial, and agricultural water supply and hydropower generation and has significant economic, social, and environmental impacts, especially in vulnerable regions (Sheffield and Wood 2012; Van Loon and Lanen 2012; Hao and Singh 2015; Barker et al. 2016; Hao et al. 2016; Yang et al. 2020a, b). Increased * Donglai Jiao [email protected] 1

School of Geography and Biological Information, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

2

Smart Health Big Data Analysis and Location Services Engineering Lab of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China



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Natural Hazards

water use due to rapid economic development will further increase the risk of hydrological drought (Wada et al. 2013; He et al. 2017). Human activities such as land use changes, water abstraction, irrigation, and reservoir operation directly or indirectly influence regional hydrological droughts. However, the effects of human activities likely differ across regions; therefore, it is essential to understand how human activities intensify or mitigate hydrological drought on a regional scale. The Yangtze River is one of the longest rivers in the world, and the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) is a crucial area of water resources, population, and economic productivity in China. In recent decades, with ra