Meteorological drought risk in the Daqing River Basin, North China: current observations and future projections
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Meteorological drought risk in the Daqing River Basin, North China: current observations and future projections Wenbin Mu1,2
•
Fuliang Yu2 • Yuping Han1 • Weixi Ma1 • Yong Zhao2
Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Drought is a major natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional agriculture, water supply, ecological environment and social economy. Extreme events, including droughts, are expected to be severer and more frequent because of climate warming. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections of meteorological drought in the Daqing River Basin (DRB), North China, based on the modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod). Observed changes of meteorological drought are analyzed based on the precipitation series of 26 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2011, and future projections are made under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) from 2021 to 2050. The result shows a change from wet to dry detected in most areas of the DRB in summer, winter and annual series. The drought risk is higher under the condition of ‘‘OR’’ and ‘‘AND’’ return period during the observation period, and the high-risk regions cover a large area. The drought risk from 2021 to 2050 will increase across the basin under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, compared with which in the base period from 1971 to 2000. Most regions will be at a higher drought risk under the condition of ‘‘OR’’ return period, and the area with high-risk under RCP 4.5 is slightly larger than that under RCP 8.5. Under the condition of ‘‘AND’’ return period, the high-risk regions will cover the area from the northwest to the northeast, while the area of high-risk regions under RCP 8.5 will be larger than that under RCP 4.5. The result of this paper will be helpful for performing an efficient water resource management in the DRB under the impacts of global warming and climate change. Keywords Trends Drought risk Representative concentration pathway (RCP) Projection Modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod) Daqing River Basin
1 Introduction Drought is generally defined as a prolonged period of dry weather caused by the lack of precipitation, resulting in a serious water shortage for some activity, population or ecological system. It is also thought of as an extended imbalance between precipitation and evapotranspiration or between water supply and demand. Drought is one of the most frequent natural hazards and has severe impacts on & Yong Zhao [email protected] 1
North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
agriculture, water supply, ecosystem, public health, energy and social economy (Sun et al. 2017). Drought can cause massive economic losses and even famine (Dutra et al. 2013; Smith and Katz 2013). It is estimated that the global e
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