Emergency material reserve location selection by a time-series-based evidential reasoning approach under bounded rationa
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Emergency material reserve location selection by a time‑series‑based evidential reasoning approach under bounded rationality Ran Fang1 · Huchang Liao1 Accepted: 23 October 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Location selection of emergency facilities is a vital issue in the disaster management, which can be considered as a multi-criteria decision making problem with uncertainty. In this regard, the evidential reasoning (ER) approach can be used for such a multiple criteria analysis with uncertain information. However, the original ER approach neither took into account the bounded rationality of experts, nor examined the information at different time nodes, which may not conform to the actual situation of location selection. To solve this problem, we propose a time-series-based ER approach under the bounded rationality of experts to make full use of all evidence. Firstly, we propose a prospect-theory-based modification function to adjust the evidence given by experts and reduce the corresponding subjectivity. Considering the information at different time, we then propose a time-seriesbased ER approach to generate the comprehensive evidence of each alternative over the whole period. Besides, a VIKOR-based ranking method is proposed to improve the way to rank alternatives in the original ER approach. Finally, the proposed method is applied in the location selection of the emergency material reserve and the corresponding comparative analyses are given to show the rationality of the proposed method. Keywords Location selection · Emergency material reserve · Evidential reasoning · Bounded rationality · Time series
1 Introduction In recent years, disasters or emergencies such as earthquakes, floods, terrorist attacks occurred frequently. As these emergencies occurred without warning, they usually cause a large number of casualties and financial losses (Zhang et al. 2019a, b). To reduce the adverse effects of these events, it is particularly important to select the proper locations of emergency facilities such as the material warehouse, medical rescue canter, and rescue station (Cao and Chen 2019). Factors affecting the location selection of emergency facilities
* Huchang Liao [email protected] 1
Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China
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are not single and generally complex, and thus it is difficult for experts to give accurate evaluations. The location selection of emergency material reserve can be regarded as a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem under uncertainty. How to deal with uncertain information is a vital point for this problem (Gu and Geng 2018). Evidential reasoning (ER) approach (Yang and Xu 2002), in which the assessments given by experts are called evidence, is an MCDM method that can deal with uncertain information. For the ER approach, if an alternative cannot be evaluated to a certain grade, then the evidence of the alternative is fuzzy. To model such a piece of fuzzy evidence, the ER approach established a unique f
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