Energy Use in the Building Sector and Climate Change: Modeling, Developments, and Future Trends
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Energy Use in the Building Sector and Climate Change: Modeling, Developments, and Future Trends Francesco Guarino1, Sonia Longo1, Marina Mistretta2 and Maurizio Cellura1 1 Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy 2 Department of Heritage, Architecture, Urbanism, University Mediterranea of Reggio Calabria, Reggio Calabria, Italy
Definition Climate change is going to have significant impacts among a wide range of areas and domains, including the building sector, characterized by constructions which may not be designed to be resilient to the evolutions in the warming climate that will occur in the next decades. The chapter investigates methodologies and approaches connected to the assessment of the effects of climate change to the energy use within the building sector. Methodologies are compared and the most relevant future trends expected are traced for the current century.
Introduction The effects of climate change are widespread onto different areas and domains, including potential future repercussions on nearly all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as substantial variations on current climate patterns (including more frequent extreme weather events), will impact the standards of living for people throughout the world. However, climate change is creating impacts on the world also beyond the extreme events, due to a variation in current average trends of most climatic variables and parameters. The business as usual (BAU) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Edenhofer et al. 2014) suggests the average surface temperature will increase by more than 4.5 ° C by 2100 if no decisive action is undertaken on a global scale to decarbonize economies. Widespread decarbonization of the global economy needs to target all sectors of economy including the building sector which is one of the key sectors (roughly around 30%) contributing to the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Since 1970, direct CO2 emissions from buildings have remained constant (around 3 GtCO2eq/ year), while indirect CO2 emissions from the use of electricity have reached around 9.2 GtCO2eq/ year in 2018 (International Energy Agency 2019a) with an increase of five times for residential buildings (3.50 GtCO2eq/year) and four times
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 W. Leal Filho et al. (eds.), Affordable and Clean Energy, Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71057-0_109-1
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(2.52 GtCO2eq/year) for commercial buildings (Edenhofer et al. 2014). In 2018, the building sector (International Energy Agency 2019b) accounted for 36% of final energy use and 39% of energy and process-related CO2 emissions. Eleven percentage of the emissions from buildings were “embodied” in the building envelope and energy systems (Cabeza et al. 2014). This results from several factors, including extreme weather which caused an increase in the demand for heating and cooling, which accounts for roughly the 20% of the total energy use increase for 2018 (International Energy Agency 2
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