Engineering Risk and Finance
Risk models are models of uncertainty, engineered for some purposes. They are “educated guesses and hypotheses” assessed and valued in terms of well-defined future states and their consequences. They are engineered to predict, to manage countabl
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Volume 188
Series Editor: Frederick S. Hillier Stanford University, CA, USA Special Editorial Consultant: Camille C. Price Stephen F. Austin State University, TX, USA
For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/6161
Charles S. Tapiero
Engineering Risk and Finance
Charles S. Tapiero Department of Finance and Risk Engineering Polytechnic Institute of New York University Brooklyn, NY, USA
ISSN 0884-8289 ISBN 978-1-4614-6233-0 ISBN 978-1-4614-6234-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-6234-7 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012953261 # Charles S. Tapiero, 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
Risk and uncertainty are neither topics of recent interest nor a fashion arising due to an increased awareness that uncertainty prevails—fed by information, financial crises, an economy in turmoil, a networked world, and an economic environment increasingly unpredictable. To better mitigate the implications of uncertainty on our life, on our work, on the economy, on our health, and on our environment, we construct risk models. These are models of uncertainty, framing uncertainty in terms of what we know and can predict and provide estimates to their consequences (whether adverse or not). These mo
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