Estimates of above-ground tree carbon after projected land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed
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Estimates of above-ground tree carbon after projected land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed John J. Lagrosa IV 1
&
Wayne C. Zipperer 2 & Michael G. Andreu 3
# Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This study investigates the effect of land-use and land cover (LULC) change on above-ground tree carbon (AGTC) in a subbasin of the Tampa Bay Watershed, Florida. LULC change was integrated with AGTC to project future quantities under three landscape scenarios: baseline, increased and aggressive rates of development. A 12% increase in total landscape AGTC occurred from 2006 to 2011 as agriculture and rangeland were converted to residential, infrastructure and built classes. Scenario projections for 2016 show an additional increase of 11% AGTC under baseline change, 15% under increased development and 18% under aggressive development. These results suggest that residential expansion may cause an increase in AGTC storage as agriculture and rangeland areas are replaced. However, as agriculture and rangeland disappear, LULC change patterns could shift, with residential expansion replacing upland and wetland forested areas causing a long-term decrease in AGTC. These results show that biomass of the tree component of AGTC can be significant, in and of itself, for urban classes and provide insights into its role in AGTC dynamics for these systems. This information can also help decision-makers identify areas as potential carbon sources or sinks. Keywords Landscape . Land-use change . Land cover change . Urban ecosystems . Ecosystem services . Carbon storage
Introduction Land-use and land cover change (LULC) causes dramatic increases in deforestation, pollution, habitat destruction and a variety of other environmental problems (Brundtland 1988). This is particularly true in urban areas, which dramatically impact preceding land-uses and land covers. LULC change is also a major contributor to global carbon emissions. It is estimated that during the period 1850–1990 LULC change contributed 33% of total carbon (C) emissions (Houghton 1999, 2003). In the tropics, which are currently experiencing accelerated LULC change, land clearing causes
* John J. Lagrosa, IV [email protected] 1
Center for Urban Environmental Research and Education (CUERE), University of Maryland, Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, TRC, Rm. 149, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA
2
USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, PO Box 110806, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
3
School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Newins-Ziegler Hall, PO Box 110410, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
a decrease of 120 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 vs. 68.3 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 in the subtropics and 62.9 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 for temperate regions per year (West et al. 2010). Houghton (2010) points out that while most modeled estimates of C emissions from land-use change point to an upward trend, the variability between estimates is increasing as modeled LULC change is compared to actual change over time. Houghton further states th
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