Estimating the determinant factors of container dwell times at seaports
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Estimating the determinant factors of container dwell times at seaports Nadereh M oini, Maria Boile, Sotiris Theofanis and William Laventhal Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 100 Brett Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA. E-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]
A b s t r a c t Numerous options are being considered in practice, and have been captured in theoretical research, for increasing container terminal capacity. These include new stacking and handling technologies, optimizing yard space allocation and creating empty container depots outside of terminals to mention a few. Among these, reducing the amount of time a container spends at the terminal, container dwell time (CDT), may prove to be one of the least costly solutions. For this strategy to be successful, it is essential that terminal operators be able to define factors impacting the CDT and estimate how long a container remains in the yard. This article attempts to identify determinant factors of CDT and delineates appropriate computational tools for estimating CDT based on a set of such factors on which terminal operators typically collect relevant data. The article compares the performance of three data mining algorithms to estimate CDT: Naı¨ve Bayes, decision tree and a NB-decision tree hybrid. Using the best performing model, sample terminal data is used to measure how changes in CDT determinant factors impact CDT, yard capacity and terminal revenue. The outcomes reveal that the impacts of changes in CDT determinant factors can be fairly considerable in order to affect terminal’s capacity and revenue earned from demurrage fees. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2012) 14, 162–177. doi:10.1057/mel.2012.3
Keywords: container dwell time; Naı¨ve Bayes; decision tree; data mining; determinant factor; yard capacity
Introduction Despite the current global economic downturn, marine container terminals around the globe continue to face challenges in handling the growth of r 2012 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1479-2931 Maritime Economics & Logistics Vol. 14, 2, 162–177 www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/
Estimating the determinant factors of container dwell times at seaports
containerized cargo that has occurred during the past few decades. This growth has contributed to container port congestion and increased the pressure to efficiently handle containers inside terminals. Whereas global container traffic reached 143 million TEU in 2007, total container volume handled by marine terminals reached almost 490 million TEU (Information Agency port news, 2008). Considering the limited land available in and around ports, alleviating these concerns by expanding the area of container terminals – if at all possible – is quite costly. Consequently, port operators are continuously looking for solutions to utilize their existing resources in the most effective way. New container stacking and handling technologies, optimizing yard space allocation and creating empty container depots outsid
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