Estimating the value of investments and imports for achieving food security for fish
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Estimating the value of investments and imports for achieving food security for fish Adel K. Ghanem1 · Khalid N. Al rwis1 · Sahar A. Kamara2 · Sharaf Eldin B. Alaagib1 · Nageeb M. Aldawdahi1 Received: 14 March 2019 / Accepted: 9 December 2019 © Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract We research current scenarios to estimate the value of the investments and imports needed to achieve different levels of food security for fish in Egypt. We use the strategic stock estimation equations, the food security coefficient, the distribution of Bernoulli, and the standard errors at 95% confidence. The results are as follows. The strategic stock of fish reached 376,350 tons. With local consumption of 1.71 million tons in 2015, the fish food security coefficient was estimated at 0.22. The relative importance of the contribution of local production of fish security ranged from 14.05 to 20.95% at 95% confidence, while that of imports ranged from 1.15 to 8.05% at 95% confidence. Achieving full fish security requires an increase in production by 1.09 million tons to at most 1.62 million tons and an increase in fish imports from 88,760 tons to at most 621,350 tons, both at 95% confidence. The value of additional investments at a 10% discount rate to achieve full fish security ranged from at least 6.28 billion pounds to at most 9.35 billion pounds, while the value of the increase in fish imports ranged from at least 1.41 billion pounds to at least 9.85 billion pounds at 95% confidence. Keywords Food security · Fish · Strategic stock · Investments · Imports
1 Introduction Fish are important sources of animal protein, fats, vitamins, and minerals. Fish contains 20% of its weight in animal protein, similar to amino acids in chicken protein. Its advantage compared with beef-sourced protein is the superiority of its coefficient of utilization and easy of digestion. Fish also have fat ratios that vary with species. They are rich in vitamins, especially vitamin D. The percentage of mineral salts in fish ranges from 3 to 7% of dry weight (Ghanem and Alobaied 2002). Without the ability to increase fishery production capacity of traditional fisheries (seas and lakes), fish farming has become a matter * Sharaf Eldin B. Alaagib [email protected] 1
Agricultural Economics Department, College of Food and Agricultural Sciences, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2460, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
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Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Giza, Egypt
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of concern for the Saudi state. The production of fish farms increased from 323,700 tons (representing 44.7% of the total fish production) in 2000 to 1.36 million tons (representing 79.54% of the total fish production) in 2016. Because fish production failed to meet local consumption needs, the country was forced to expand its imports, increasing them from 213,630 tons valued at 479.41 million pounds in 2000 to 296,060 tons valued at 5752.97 million pounds in 2015 (Central Public Mobilization and Statistics 2018). The Egyptian economy has been exposed to
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