Estimation of volcanic ashfall deposit and removal works based on ash dispersion simulations
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Estimation of volcanic ashfall deposit and removal works based on ash dispersion simulations Yosuke Tomii1 · Tomoya Shibayama1 · Yuta Nishida1 · Ryota Nakamura2 · Non Okumura1 · Hideaki Yamaguchi1 · Yosuke Tanokura1 · Yu Oshima1 · Natsuko Sugawara1 · Kota Fujisawa1 · Takayuki Wakita1 · Takahito Mikami3 · Tomoyuki Takabatake1 · Miguel Esteban1 Received: 21 January 2020 / Accepted: 22 June 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Volcanic ashfall can cause considerable social impacts to a wide geographical area. Given the challenge to predict volcanic eruptions, it is essential to simulate the dispersion of ash as soon as possible after an event and promptly estimate the distribution of deposits and necessary removal works. In this study, a series of procedures to improve the accuracy of the WRF-FALL3D model for the case of the eruption of Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane in 2018 are proposed, which were verified through field surveys of ash deposits, showing that the accuracy of the model can be improved by selecting a range of column heights and promptly conducting field surveys following an event. Also, a methodology to estimate the amount of work necessary to clear road networks and river channels is proposed, which was applied to a volcanic event similar to that of the Hoei eruption of Mt. Fuji in 1707. The results also emphasize the need to improve the estimation of column heights in the future, which is of paramount importance to ensure the safety and operational continuity of human infrastructure in the vicinity of major active volcanoes. Keywords Ash dispersion modelling · Ashfall deposit · Removal works · WRF-FALL3D · Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane · Mt. Fuji
* Miguel Esteban [email protected] 1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, 3‑4‑1 Okubo, Shinjuku‑ku, Tokyo, Japan
2
Civil Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, Niigata University, Ninocho 8050, Ikarashi, Nishi‑ku, Niigata‑shi, Niigata, Japan
3
Department of Urban and Civil Engineering, Tokyo City University, 1‑28‑1 Tamazutsumi, Setagaya‑ku, Tokyo, Japan
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Volcanic eruptions are a significant hazard to human settlements worldwide. There are more than a hundred active volcanoes in Japan, about 10% of the total number worldwide (Global Volcanism Program 2013). Although Japan has not experienced any large-scale volcanic disasters that have caused direct damage to highly urbanized metropolitan areas in the past 200 years (Suzuki 2013), these could take place in the near future (Nakada 2014; Kamata 2015). After the eruption of Mt. Ontake in 2014, which caused the greatest number of volcanic related casualties (58 people) amongst the eruption events that have taken place in Japan since the end of World War 2, alertness about this phenomenon has been growing in the country. Ashfall is characteristic of volcanic events and can cause damage to a wide area, leading to significant social impacts (Wilson et al. 2015). Essentially, even a small amount of volcanic ash c
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