Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm sea
- PDF / 2,208,713 Bytes
- 29 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 97 Downloads / 152 Views
Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre‑monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India Rajesh Kumar Sahu1 · Jiteshwar Dadich1 · Bhishma Tyagi1 · Naresh Krishna Vissa1 · Jyotsna Singh2 Received: 17 May 2019 / Accepted: 24 April 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The present study analyses thermodynamic indices variation over three sites of eastern Indian region: Bhubaneswar, Kolkata and Ranchi, associated with pre-monsoon thunderstorms for 20-year period (1987–2006) for Bhubaneswar and Kolkata and 15 years (1996– 2010) for Ranchi. All three sites are showing a rise in humidity over the period, unveiling the climate change over the region. We evaluated the threshold values of various thermodynamic indices for periods of 5-year intervals at each site based on skill score analysis. The indices associated with potential, convective, latent instability and moisture are showing varying threshold values over all the sites, and some of the indices are showing a definite increase/decrease in these threshold values. All three sites are showing a decrease in thunderstorm frequency over the study period. The work identifies the thermodynamic indices, which tend to capture the global warming impact in the threshold values by either showing an increase or decrease with the time at each site. The results advocate that for a long-term analysis of thermodynamic indices, the threshold values may change from one period to another. Keywords Thunderstorm · Thermodynamic indices · Skill score analysis · Global warming · Climate change
1 Introduction Thunderstorms are the convective storms which are responsible for producing lightning, heavy showers, severe wind gusts and hail with an acoustic effect of thunder (Kolendowicz et al. 2017). The thunderstorm cells are mainly originating from the vertically developed cumulonimbus clouds, with moisture, triggering mechanism (lifting) and atmospheric
* Bhishma Tyagi [email protected] 1
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, Odisha 769008, India
2
Shanti Raj Bhawan, Paramhans Nagar, Kandwa, Varanasi 221106, India
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
instability as a basic requirement for the formation (Doswell 1987). The study of thunderstorms and associated atmospheric changes is a prime area of research worldwide due to the need of accurate prediction of these events (Kunz et al. 2009; Saha et al. 2012; Wu et al. 2013; Diffenbaugh et al. 2013; Madala et al. 2013, 2016; Brooks et al. 2014; Seeley and Romps 2015; Allen and Allen 2016; Tippett et al. 2016; Osuri et al. 2017; James et al. 2018). To improve the predictability of thunderstorm, among various techniques, the stability indices and skill score techniques are one of the widely accepted and popular methods helpful in the nowcasting of thunderstorms and associated precipitation events for many years (Normand 1921; Srinivasan et al. 1973; Peppier 1988; Schultz 1989; Sadhukhan et al. 2000; Muk
Data Loading...
