Evaluation of Level Crossing Accident Factors by Logistic Regression Method: A Case Study
- PDF / 1,080,758 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 83 Downloads / 175 Views
RESEARCH PAPER
Evaluation of Level Crossing Accident Factors by Logistic Regression Method: A Case Study Kürşat Yıldız1 · Ahmet Derya Ateş1 Received: 24 September 2018 / Accepted: 4 March 2020 © Shiraz University 2020
Abstract The sections where risk of accidents is the highest in railway transport are the level crossings. In many countries, accidents that occur on the level crossings lead to loss of goods and lives. Therefore, governments have adapted some regulations to prevent accidents that occur at level crossings. In this study, we have examined the data of level crossings belonging to particular years in Turkey. The effects of physical and traffic characteristics of the level crossings, which are determined in the framework of the related regulation, are interpreted by logistic regression modeling method. As a result, it was determined “the width” and “the type” of level crossings are independent determinants of accidents, while “traffic moment” is not. Since the traffic moment parameter is not an independent determinant, the sub-parameters forming the traffic moment are used as inputs for the new model. In the new model, which sub-parameters of traffic moment, the type and width of the level crossing parameters are used as input, “the number of annual average traffic value of vehicles” and “the type of level crossing” parameters are found as independent determinants of accidents while the number of annual average traffic value of trains and the width are not. Keywords Level crossing · Logistic regression · Traffic moment
1 Introduction Literature definition of level crossing is the point where rail and road cut at the same level. These level crossings are located in conventional railway lines. Traffic accidents happening in developing and especially in undeveloped countries around the world are leading to loss of property and life. In these accidents, train accidents, land vehicles and human traffic, which are the nodes of the intersection, cannot be denied. For this reason, both academics and administrators are involved in many regulations related to the subject. The ability to conduct academic work on level crossing accidents is directly related to the detailed and proper record of accidents in the regarding country. This is the case in the USA, Canada, etc., that academic studies are examined very comprehensively. For this reason, the number of academic * Kürşat Yıldız [email protected] Ahmet Derya Ateş [email protected] 1
Teknoloji Fakültesi İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, Gazi Üniversitesi, 06500 Teknikokullar, Ankara, Turkey
studies about the accidents that is provided in Turkey is limited compared to the USA and European countries. Therefore, Turkey is going beyond academic studies and working on preparing legislative framework (Yılmaz 2013). In this regard, a risk analysis was carried out for the accidents that took place in the Turkish railways recently, and a number of suggestions were made to reduce the accidents (Tabak 2014). Accident factors of the accidents that occur in the le
Data Loading...
