Evaluation of rock slopes susceptible to circular failures using logistic and multiple regression models
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CAJG 2018: TOPIC 3
Evaluation of rock slopes susceptible to circular failures using logistic and multiple regression models Mehmet Sari 1 Received: 3 July 2019 / Accepted: 19 December 2019 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract The analysis of stability of slopes is a classical problem for geotechnical engineers. In practice, many methods are available for the desired purpose, from basic kinematic analysis to two- and three-dimensional limit equilibrium analyses and numerical modeling with various user-friendly softwares. However, additional techniques are also required to provide knowledge necessary for decision-making. In this research, a reliable dataset provided by Sah et al. (1994) was used to analyze the stability evaluation of rock slopes subjected to circular failures. For this purpose, using Slide 2018 program, 44 separate limit equilibrium slope models were built for each case given in the original work. The provided material properties and slope geometries in heavily fractured and/or very weak or highly weathered rock masses were considered during the model building stage. It was found that Slide 2018 program generated dissimilar safety factors compared to those given by Sah et al. (1994) for the investigated slope cases. Binary logistic and multiple linear regression techniques were implemented in the study to promote alternative approaches for the prediction of the stability condition and safety factor (SF) of slopes excavated in heavily fractured/highly weathered rock masses. The condition of slopes (stable or failed) was predicted by binary logistic regression model with 90.9% accuracy. The SF of the slopes was estimated by a multiple linear regression model with 95.6% accuracy. It was concluded that both statistical techniques could be sufficiently used as alternative approaches to predict the stability condition and SF of rock slopes prone to circular (rotational) failures. Keywords Slope stability . Logistic regression . Safety factor . Circular failure . Multiple linear regression
Introduction One of the most challenging problems in geotechnical design is the stability analysis of engineered slopes. The occurrence of slope failures in an area depends on a complex interaction of natural and man-made factors, such as mechanical properties of the material, slope geometry, permeability, precipitation, existence of old failures, proximity to streams and floodprone areas, land cover forms, removal of lower slopes and/or increased load on upper slopes, alteration of surface and subsurface drainage, and seismic events (Nandi and Shakoor This paper was selected from the 1st Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (CAJG), Tunisia 2018 Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel * Mehmet Sari [email protected] 1
Department of Mining Engineering, Aksaray University, 68100 Aksaray, Turkey
2008). It is also known that the SF value of a given slope is governed by the slope height H, slope angle β, unit weight of rock mass γ, the shear strength parameters of cohesion c, and internal friction an
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