Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Evolution of COVID‑19 Pandemic in India Ali Asad1 · Siddharth Srivastava2 · Mahendra K. Verma1 Received: 30 June 2020 / Accepted: 24 August 2020 © Indian National Academy of Engineering 2020
Abstract A mathematical analysis of patterns for the evolution of COVID-19 cases is key to the development of reliable and robust predictive models potentially leading to efficient and effective governance against COVID-19. Towards this objective, we study and analyze the temporal growth pattern of COVID-19 infection and death counts in various states of India. Our 2 analysis up to August 4, 2020, shows that several states (namely Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West √ Bengal) have reached t power-law growth, while Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh exhibit linear growth. Delhi has reached t phase and may flatten in the coming days. However, some states have deviated from the universal pattern of the epidemic curve. Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan show a gradual rise in the power-law regime, which is not the usual trend. Also, Bihar, Karnataka, and Kerala are exhibiting a second wave. In addition, we report that initially, the death counts show similar behavior as the infection counts. Later, however, the death growth rate declines as compared to the infection growth due to better handling of critical cases and increased immunity of the population. These observations indicate that except Delhi, most of the Indian states are far from flattening their epidemic curves. Keywords COVID-19 · Epidemic spread · Power law growth
Introduction COVID-19 pandemic has been impacting the life and economy across the globe since December 2019 and has caused major disruptions (Walker et al. 2020). As of August 2020, COVID-19 has infected nearly 20 million people across the globe with 90 countries in community transmission stage (World Health Organization) leading to significant efforts towards control (Rawaf et al. 2020), modelling (Barkur and Vibha 2020; Chatterjee et al. 2020a; Giordano et al. 2020), search for a cure (Le et al. 2020) for COVID-19 across the world and India (Chatterjee et al. 2020b; Singhal 2020). Keeping this in mind, in this paper, we analyze the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths in various Indian states. Specifically, we study and model the temporal evolution of * Ali Asad [email protected] Mahendra K. Verma [email protected] 1
Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India
Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Noida 201307, India
2
infection and death counts for various time intervals and analyze their variations. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, India imposed the world’s strictest nationwide lockdown beginning from March 25, 2020 (Lancet 2020). However, preparedness and impact of the lockdown varied across states depending upon past experiences such as the Nipah virus in Kerala or Odisha’s disaster response due to recent natural disasters (Lancet 2020; Dore 2020). Therefore, attempts have been made to study the impact of COVID-19 in India. Sardar et al. (2
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