Evolving Transportation Networks
Over the last two centuries, the development of modern transportation has significantly transformed human life. The main theme of this book is to understand the complexity of transportation development and model the process of network growth includi
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Feng Xie • David M. Levinson
Evolving Transportation Networks
1C
Feng Xie Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Washington, D.C. USA [email protected]
David M. Levinson University of Minnesota Department of Civil Engineering 500 Pillsbury Drive SE Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 USA [email protected]
Series Editors David Gillen Werner Rothengatter
ISSN 1572-4387 ISBN 978-1-4419-9803-3 e-ISBN 978-1-4419-9804-0 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-9804-0 Springer New York Dordrecht Heidelberg London Library of Congress Control Number: 2011925541 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011 All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
For Janet and our newborn son Eric. Feng Xie
For Samuel, Olivia, and Benjamin. David Levinson
Preface
I first started thinking systematically about the evolution of transportation networks in the early 1990s when I was a transportation planner at the Montgomery County (Maryland) Planning Department working with the group developing a regional travel demand forecasting model. My job involved developing a new generation of travel demand forecasting models, predicting the number of trips coming into and out of each area, matching trip origins and destinations, determining the mode (car, transit, walking) they would use, and assigning the route on the network they would follow. These models originated in the 1950s in Chicago, and by the early 1990s had been deployed in all large US metropolitan areas. The model I worked on, Travel/2 was distinct in several ways, mainly ensuring an equilibrium between supply and demand (the travel times used to generate travel demand, and the travel times resulting from that demand). However, these models all took as a given the underlying transportation network. If we could forecast traffic growth, and others could forecast land use, why couldn’t we forecast the growth of networks? This idea was one of the drivers for me to return to graduate school for a Ph.D. As I was preparing to return to graduate school in 1994, I remember a conversation I had with my former college roommate Robert Forsythe, who was living and working in nearby Virginia. I proposed that the network itself (not merely the travel times on the network due to the demand, but the physical capacity of the network) responds in
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