Exchange Rate Alignments

This book calls for a radical reappraisal of economic policy in the UK. It argues that a much lower exchange rate is needed to re-establish sufficient manufacturing capacity to enable Britain to pay its way in the world. Mills makes the case for the remov

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Exchange Rate Alignments John Mills Economist, John Mills Ltd

© John Mills 2012 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012 978-1-137-02296-7

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2012 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN 978-1-349-43801-3 DOI 10.1057/9781137022974

ISBN 978-1-137-02297-4 (eBook)

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12

Contents List of Illustrations

vii

Preface

ix

Acknowledgements

xi

1

Economic Growth Competitiveness Facing international competition Investment and productivity Returns on investment

1 4 8 14 16

2

The Exchange Rate Changing the exchange rate Preferences for strong currencies Protectionism vs globalisation The costs of overvaluation

20 22 27 34 37

3

Inflation Devaluation and the price level Leading sector inflation Shocks to the system Excess demand Labour costs

40 45 50 53 57 60

4

Unemployment Comparative experience Misguided solutions Productivity and competitiveness

66 68 72 76

5

Sustainability Population growth Resources Climate change Migration

82 84 89 93 97

6

The Industrial Revolution Pre-industrial history Early industrialisation in Europe v

101 102 108

vi

7

Contents

Nineteenth-Century Europe The US economy to World War I Lessons from the gold standard era

110 116 121

International Turmoil: 1914–45 Europe’s disastrous years Boom and slump in the USA Keynes and demand management

124 126 133 1