Extracting Knowledge From Time Series An Introduction to Nonlinear E

This book addresses the fundamental question of how to construct mathematical models for the evolution of dynamical systems from experimentally-obtained time series. It places emphasis on chaotic signals and nonlinear modeling and discusses different appr

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d Programme Advisory Board Dan Braha, New England Complex Systems Institute and University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA Péter Èrdi, Center for Complex Systems Studies, Kalamazoo College, USA and Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary Karl Friston, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, London, UK Hermann Haken, Center of Synergetics, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany Janusz Kacprzyk, System Research, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Scott Kelso, Center for Complex Systems and Brain Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, USA J¨urgen Kurths, Nonlinear Dynamics Group, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany Linda Reichl, Center for Complex Quantum Systems, University of Texas, Austin, USA Peter Schuster, Theoretical Chemistry and Structural Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Frank Schweitzer, System Design, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Didier Sornette, Entrepreneurial Risk, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Springer Series in Synergetics Founding Editor: H. Haken

The Springer Series in Synergetics was founded by Herman Haken in 1977. Since then, the series has evolved into a substantial reference library for the quantitative, theoretical and methodological foundations of the science of complex systems. Through many enduring classic texts, such as Haken’s Synergetics and Information and Self-Organization, Gardiner’s Handbook of Stochastic Methods, Risken’s The Fokker Planck-Equation or Haake’s Quantum Signatures of Chaos, the series has made, and continues to make, important contributions to shaping the foundations of the field. The series publishes monographs and graduate-level textbooks of broad and general interest, with a pronounced emphasis on the physico-mathematical approach.

For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/712

Boris P. Bezruchko · Dmitry A. Smirnov

Extracting Knowledge From Time Series An Introduction to Nonlinear Empirical Modeling

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Prof. Boris P. Bezruchko Saratov State University Astrakhanskaya Street 83 410012 Saratov Russia [email protected]

Dr. Dmitry A. Smirnov Russian Academy of Science V.A. Kotel’nikov Institute of RadioEngineering and Electronics Saratov Branch Zelyonaya Str. 38 410019 Saratov Russia [email protected]

ISSN 0172-7389 ISBN 978-3-642-12600-0 e-ISBN 978-3-642-12601-7 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-12601-7 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010932406 c Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010  This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecut