Factors That Will Influence Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in the 21st Century
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ctors That Will Influence Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in the 21st Century
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Methane Hydrates
Stephen A. Holditch (Texas A&M University, USA) Russell R. Chianelli (University of Texas at El Paso, USA) Abstract A recent report published by the National Petroleum Council (NPC) in the United States predicted a 50–60% growth in total global demand for energy by 2030. Because oil, gas, and coal will continue to be the primary energy sources during this time, the energy industry will have to continue increasing the supply of these fuels to meet this increasing demand. Achieving this goal will require the exploitation of both conventional and unconventional reservoirs of oil and gas in an environmentally acceptable manner. Such efforts will, in turn, require advancements in materials science, particularly in the development of materials that can withstand high-pressure, high-temperature, and high-stress conditions.
Introduction
t emperature, and high-stress conditions, will be important to the entire industry.
The National Petroleum Council (NPC) in the United States recently published a report entitled “Facing the Hard Truths about Energy” that evaluates the oil and gas supply and demand in the early part of the 21st century.1 The report was developed by more than 350 participants from diverse backgrounds, with input from over 1000 other persons and organizations. The report concluded that the total global demand for energy will grow by 50–60% by 2030 as a result of the increase in world population and higher average standard of living in many of the developing countries. It is clear that the world can use all of the energy the industry can produce from oil; natural gas; coal; nuclear energy; and renewable energy sources, such as wind, sun, biofuels, and hydroelectric power. It is also clear that, for the next few decades, oil, gas, and coal will continue to be the primary energy sources. The energy industry will have to continue increasing the supply of the hydrocarbon fuels to meet the global energy demand. There are ample hydrocarbon resources to meet the demand well into the 21st century. Oil and natural gas volumes located in unconventional reservoirs, such as heavy oil, oil shales, tight gas reservoirs, gas shales, and coal seams, are much larger than what has been produced thus far, primarily from conventional reservoirs. The key to the future will be the development of new technology that allows the industry to produce oil and gas from these unconventional reservoirs in an environmentally acceptable manner. Other factors will also affect both the supply and demand of oil and gas in the coming decades. One major factor is concern over the environment. As such, CO2 sequestration and environmentally friendly operations will be a large part of developing new resources. Other factors, such as technology breakthroughs in nuclear power, biofuels, or solar energy, can be expected to alter the demand for energy from hydrocarbons. Throughout the process, the development of materials, especially those
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