Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective
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Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective Marco Novelli1 · Alberto Cazzola1 · Aurora Angeli1 · Lucia Pasquini1 Accepted: 5 November 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of the short-term fertility plans of Italian women and men living as couples, before and shortly after the onset of the 2007/2008 Great Recession, which may have affected their reproductive plans through a climate of rising economic uncertainty. Using multilevel models, we investigate how fertility intentions are related to the individual characteristics of the respondents and their partners as well as to changes in the economic context. The findings confirm that the Great Recession modified the determinants of short-term fertility intentions differently for women and men. Among the most relevant issues, we outline the importance of couples’ working conditions and the contextual labour market indicators. Keywords Fertility intentions · Economic uncertainty · Gender perspective · Italy
1 Introduction Changes in fertility behaviour are among the most intensively studied issues in demographic research. Recent works address fertility intentions, which pertain to the additional children that women and men intend to have, and concern the planning of actions towards a particular goal or a determination to act in a certain way (Morgan 2001). Within the transition from fertility decision-making to fertility behaviour, intentions follow childbearing desires and anticipate concrete behaviour (Billingsley and Ferrarini 2014), reflecting the combined effect of fertility demand and situational constraints on achieving the desired fertility in the hypothesis that having a child is the result of a reasoned decision, based on the evaluation of costs and benefits (Thomson and Brandreth 1995; Ajzen and Klobas 2013). * Marco Novelli [email protected] Alberto Cazzola [email protected] Aurora Angeli [email protected] Lucia Pasquini [email protected] 1
Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, 40126 Bologna, Italy
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Fertility intentions link social, economic, and psychological variables to fertility and therefore depend on both the characteristics of individuals (age, marital status, parity, educational level, relationship networks, and economic situation) and the country’s political and economic climate and welfare system (Morgan 2001; Morrissey 2017). Among the variables negatively influencing fertility intentions, economic insecurity–e.g., insecurity about current and future employment, income and wealth—can play an important role (UNDESA 2008). A deterioration in the labour market may induce perceptions and expectations of job instability, economic insecurity, awareness of the crisis, and depression, which in turn may affect fertility intentions and fertility (Andersson 2000; Adsera 2004; Philipov et al. 2006; Sobotka et al. 2011; Kreyenfeld e
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